The TCU Horned Frogs are officially on upset alert this week in the Little Apple. TCU has to travel to Manhattan to take on the Kansas State Wildcats and their wily head coach Bill Snyder. Snyder has a reputation for knocking off ranked teams in big games and oddsmakers are aware of this. A win for TCU here would mean an 8-0 start is likely with its next two games coming against Kansas and Iowa State, while a loss would probably submarine any hopes they have of crashing the College Football Playoff.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 7 game is set for Saturday, October 14, 2017, at 12 p.m.
ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -4.5
Kansas State +4.5
Over/Under Check Back Later
Odds Analysis
TCU is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season. The Horned Frogs have knocked off ranked conference opponents in back to back games and are now ranked No. 6 in the nation after those wins. Last week, they struggled to get past a game West Virginia team, needing to use Kenny Hill in some trick plays in order to get the win.
Kansas State is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS this year, and suffered a tough loss on the road in Austin last week. The Wildcats ended up taking the Longhorns to double overtime, but ended up losing and not even getting the cover at the end of the game. However, this team had no business sticking around as long as it did. Texas racked up 546 total yards against this defense, but two missed field goals meant the game went to overtime.
Key Injury
Wildcats’ quarterback Jesse Ertz is a game-time decision for this one. Ertz has started 18 straight for Kansas State, but is questionable for this one because of an injury. He is one of the toughest quarterbacks you will find though and it’s likely he will be able to play for this one. Ertz has tore his ACL twice and played more than half of last season with a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery.
He fits the mold of the traditional Kansas State quarterback to a tee. Ertz isn’t a great passer, but he is efficient and able to pick up tough yards on the ground. This season, he is averaging 9.3 yards per pass, and has only thrown three interceptions all year long. Additionally, Ertz is the team’s leading rusher, averaging 5.2 YPC so far this year. The offense would struggle in his absence, so he needs to play.
Matchup to Watch
Some will say that TCU’s pass defense is a little weak and that this is something that Kansas State can exploit, but they are mistaken. Although the Horned Frogs have given up 256.4 yards per game through the air, those numbers have recently been inflated because they had to play quarterbacks like Mason Rudolph and Will Grier.
Rudolph and Grier each threw for over 360 yards against this defense, but in TCU’s first three games the pass defense was great at putting the clamps on its opposition. The Horned Frogs allowed just 172.7 yards through the air in those three games and that’s probably about what Kansas State will manage against this team.
Free ATS Pick
For all the talk of how great of a coach Snyder is when it comes to knocking off ranked opponents, his results say otherwise. Snyder is just 22-48-1 against ranked teams during his long tenure at Kansas State, and he went 0-4 against ranked teams last year.
This is a great spot to get TCU at a discounted price. The Horned Frogs are going to be able to move the ball against a defense that was exposed against Texas last week, and Ertz can’t exploit this pass defense.
College Football Odds: TCU 40, Kansas State 23
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
