Everyone seems to be all aboard the bandwagon of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Oklahoma State was seen as the second-best team in the Big 12 prior to the start of the season but now its tilt against Oklahoma in the first week of November very well could determine a spot in the College Football Playoff. This week, the Cowboys kick off Big 12 play against the TCU Horned Frogs, the team that might be the third best in the Big 12 and could make some noise after a lackluster 2016.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU +13
Oklahoma State -13
Over/Under 68.5
Odds Analysis
TCU failed to cover against its two cupcakes by a grand total of three points and that makes this team 1-2 ATS on the year. The Horned Frogs were impressive in their one true test though, suffocating Arkansas’ ground game in a 28-7 win over the Razorbacks. TCU’s run defense only allowed Arkansas to pick up 129 rushing yards on the day and unsurprisingly that also meant the game went well under the total.
The Cowboys have been a joy to watch this season. The Sooner State might have the two best quarterbacks in the country in Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph and watching them is almost appointment television. Oklahoma State has easily covered against all three of its opponents and completely smashed Pitt on the road last week. This is one of the best passing attacks in the country and they will look to throw it all over TCU too.
This line has took off since it opened. Oklahoma State was originally a 10.5-point favorite, but that line jumped to 12 on Monday and got bumped up another point on Tuesday.
Matchup to Watch
More than anything, TCU must stop Oklahoma State’s air attack if it wants to win this game. In all three of its games this season, the Horned Frogs have limited their opponents to completing 50 percent of their passes or fewer, an impressive stat. However, SMU showed that this secondary is susceptible to home run balls last week.
The Mustangs averaged 18 yards per completion against the Horned Frogs defense last week and threw touchdown passes of 58 and 61 yards against this secondary. If SMU can do that, imagine the success that Oklahoma State can have.
James Washington is one of the best receivers in the nation and he could have a monster afternoon. He was one of four Cowboys receivers to end up with more than 100 receiving yards against Pittsburgh last week, but failed to find the end zone. Washington will make up for that this week.
Player to Watch
Kenny Hill might have to rekindle his Texas A&M days if TCU is going to get the win here. He has been good this season after an up and down season in Fort Worth in 2016. Hill can still make it happen with his legs and has been a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators to scheme against and is maturing somewhat as a passer. He has completed 75 percent of his passes this season and his 175.4 rating is one of the best numbers in the country. Hill is tucking and running less than he has in the past too and is showing more command of the offense. That at least gives TCU a shot here.
Free ATS Pick
It’s no easy feat to win in Stillwater. Its remote location makes it hard for opposing fans to get to and there will be a raucous atmosphere ready to welcome TCU. This is Oklahoma State’s best team since 2007 and it has a legitimate chance to put this program on the map at season’s end. Expect the Cowboys to roll.
College Football Odds: Cowboys 45, Horned Frogs 27
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