Although the TCU Horned Frogs dropped their game against Oklahoma last week, all is not lost for Gary Patterson’s bunch. Because of wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia, the Horned Frogs have tiebreakers over both teams and would make the Big 12 Championship Game if they happened to win out. Their next opponent, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, have just two wins in conference, but oddsmakers think the Red Raiders have a decent shot to knock off TCU.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 18, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. This game will be broadcast on FOX Sports 1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -7.5
Texas Tech +7.5
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
A lot of action has come in on TCU since this line opened. The Horned Frogs came out as a six-point favorite, but the line didn’t take long to cross seven.
Texas Tech was fantastic against the number to start the season. The Red Raiders were 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as their offense was able to pour on the points against the defenses it faced. However, those numbers have dropped in recent weeks and Texas Tech has covered just one of its last five games since then.
TCU is 8-2 SU, but just 5-5 ATS this season. The Horned Frogs have had a tough time covering the spread as a large favorite, going 0-3 ATS in that situation. Under has been a solid bet in TCU’s games this season with a record of 8-2 on the year.
Key Player
It’s not often that you highlight a kicker as a team’s key player, but Texas Tech is thrilled that Clayton Hatfield is available again after suffering an injury that kept him out of the first eight games of the year.
Texas Tech tried to find a suitable replacement for Hatfield, but three different kickers tried and failed to fill his shoes. Those three kickers combined to go just 8-13 on the year and 3-9 from 30 yards or more. That put Kliff Kingsbury in a lot of situations where he was forced to go for it or punt if he couldn’t get in the red zone and cost Texas Tech opportunities for crucial points.
Hatfield was a fantastic kicker in 2015 and 2016 and the Red Raiders are essentially guaranteed three when he lines it up. He combined to go 27-30 in his first two seasons in Lubbock.
Matchup to Watch
Although Texas Tech has been better on the defensive side of the ball than it was last season, the Red Raiders still aren’t good by any stretch. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the country and opponents have been able to find a good amount of success against their secondary. Texas Tech allows over 300 yards per game through the air and opponents complete almost two-thirds of their passes against this team.
Kenny Hill should be able to record his second 300-yard passing game of the year against this defense. Hill has been somewhat inaccurate this season and that cost TCU in both of its losses and almost cost them against West Virginia too. He has been able to put up solid numbers against porous secondaries though and TCU will need that here.
Free ATS Pick
Oddsmakers seem to have been overrating Texas Tech all year long. The Red Raiders listed this team as a favorite over both Iowa State and Kansas State, but they lost both of those games outright. Bettors have jumped on this train of thought and seeing TCU laying less than a touchdown was so surprising. Although the line isn’t as good as it was, TCU is still the right side here.
College Football Odds: TCU 37, Texas Tech 24
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