Fresh off a tough home defeat to the LSU Tigers, the Florida Gators will once again play outside of the division on Saturday when they welcome in the Texas A&M Aggies. This will be Kevin Sumlin’s troops first appearance in “The Swamp” since joining the SEC years back. These teams have only met once in SEC play dating back to 2012 when the Gators beat the Aggies 20-17 as 1-point dogs in front of the 12th Man.
Watch this regular season Week 7 matchup live on Saturday, October 14, 2017, at 7 p.m. ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas A&M +4Florida -4O/U 54
Odds Analysis
For a second straight week, the betting public looks to be fading the home based Gators. LSU took a huge chunk of money right before kickoff to turn the Gators into a 1.5-point favorite down to a 1.5-point chalk. This week, over 81 percent of the betting handle has taken the points with the visiting Aggies lowering the line from the 4-point opener to -3. Reduced juice is currently on the side of the home team, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line actually go below a field goal.
Only 33 points hit the board in “The Swamp” last week with the total closing at 42.5. The Gators have played to low scorers in two of their three home games with an average of 47 points put on the board. This game’s total opened at 54 but has since fallen 1.5-points to 52.5 with a whopping 95 percent of the betting handle expecting another low scorer to play out. It’s not that easy folks. With everyone zigging, I’d look to zag.
Key Stat
4.9 - The Gators have allowed just over 24 points and 373 yards per game to date. Jim McElwain has been forced to lean on his unit much more than he’d like with the offense unable to get on track. That said, Florida has been more susceptible to getting beat on the ground, and the Aggies bring to Gainesville the nation’s No. 23 ranked rushing attack that churns out an average of 224.8 yards per game at just under 5.0 yards per carry. Should the trio of Kellen Mond, Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford be able to mimic those numbers, it would give them a leg up in the time of possession battle with Florida’s offense possessing the pigskin less than 30 minutes per game.
Player to Watch
Feleipe Franks – The Gators replacement for the injured Luke Del Rio failed to make much of an impact against LSU last week in completing just 10 of 16 passes for 108 yards without a touchdown or interception thrown. Florida looked to its ground attack more often, but that likely won’t be the case in this one against an Aggies defense that allows just 3.8 yards per carry ( No. 38 ) and only 118.5 rushing yards per game ( No. 28 ). Where Texas A&M’s defense is lacking is in the back seven with the pass defense getting lit up for an average of 263.5 yards per game ( No. 108 ). The defense sorely needs the offense to start moving the chains more often with the unit ranked No. 87 in third down conversion percentage. For that to occur in this matchup, the Gators passing game will have to step up.
Free ATS Pick
Early betting action has all been on the Aggies, and I can’t help but agree with the action. Texas A&M held firm against a much better Alabama Crimson tide outfit last week, and it’s represented well in its two played games away from College Station. Save for forcing turnovers, there isn’t a whole heck of a lot to get excited about when it comes to the 2017-18 Gators. The offense is simply overmatched every time it takes the field, and Texas A&M sports the better of the two units on that side of the ball. It won’t be as ugly as last week, but the results will be the same nonetheless.
College Football Odds: Aggies 28, Gators 27
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