Kevin Sumlin might be on the hottest seat in the nation. Despite being one of the highest paid head coaches in the country, he has lost four games in each of the past four seasons and has followed the same script in each of those years. His Texas A&M Aggies get off to a strong start against an opponent that turns out to be overrated and then rips off five or six straight wins before completely collapsing. The boosters are tired of the same old story and even a win against the UCLA Bruins in the season opener might not stop the grumbling.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Sunday, September 3, 2017 at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas A&M +3.5
UCLA -3.5
Over/Under 56.5
Odds Analysis
Texas A&M has been one of the worst ATS teams over the past four seasons. The Aggies are 17-33-2 ATS during that timespan and it’s a far cry from what they showed in Sumlin’s first season on the job. This team has been a little bit better in non-conference games with a 2-2 ATS mark in each of the last four seasons.
The Bruins suffered through a terrible season in 2016. Injuries just killed this team’s chances to be competitive as even superstar quarterback Josh Rosen went down. They finished 4-8, easily their worst season under Jim Mora. UCLA has been bad against the number in non-conference play over the last three seasons. During that span, the Bruins are just 1-8 ATS.
Key Stat
UCLA’s rushing numbers were dreadful last season. From 2010 to 2016, the Bruins didn’t average less than 174 yards per game on the ground. The Bruins were able to run the ball at least somewhat effectively and that was one of the team’s keys to success under Mora.
However, those numbers took a nosedive in 2016. UCLA ran for just 84 YPG on average and picked up just 2.9 yards per carry. Most of the blame goes on an offensive line that just couldn’t move defensive linemen, but injuries played a part too.
The injuries to the offensive line led to Rosen getting hurt. He was sacked five times against Texas A&M last season and five times against Arizona State in the game that he was injured. The inability to run the ball created a snowball effect that ended up submarining the passing game and the defense. That can’t happen again in 2017.
Player to Watch
Christian Kirk is one of the most dynamic players in the nation. Kirk is the leading returning receiver for the Aggies and should see an even bigger percentage of passes in 2017. He is the only one of the five leading receivers from 2016 that is returning to College Station and will be the leader of a very young offense this season.
Kirk has been the Aggies best possession receiver for each of the last two seasons. That role should expand with a likely new starter at quarterback in Nick Starkel. Starkel will need someone reliable to throw to and Kirk has the most reliable hands in the receiving corps.
In addition to his success as a receiver, Kirk is a fantastic return specialist. He beat out Christian McCaffrey for First-Team All-American honors as a return man last season after returning three punts for touchdowns in 2016. Look for Texas A&M to get the ball in his hands as much as possible.
Free ATS Pick
The Aggies won’t be able to push the Bruins offensive line around like they did last season without Myles Garrett. Garrett was a special athlete and a deserved No. 1 pick in the draft. He made everyone’s jobs easier on Texas A&M’s defense and now his teammates will experience life without him.
That will make things easier for UCLA to establish the run. The run game doesn’t even need to be great with a talent like Rosen at quarterback, it just needs to be competent. If that happens, the Bruins should win with ease.
College Football Odds: Bruins 31, Aggies 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
