The Baylor Bears are still looking for their first win of the season. Baylor came painstakingly close to pulling even with West Virginia near the end of regulation last week thanks to a torrid comeback, but a two-point conversion attempt failed and led to a 38-36 loss for the Bears. Still, it was the most encouraging showing yet from the Bears who have been toothless in many of their outings, including a 59-16 beatdown at the hands of Oklahoma State the week prior. Tom Herman and the Texas Longhorns are going to try to keep from falling victim to the Bears this week.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 28, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas -8
Baylor +8
Odds Analysis
There’s been a lot of early action on the Bears in this one. Baylor opened as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday night and the line is sitting at 8 as of early Monday morning. There’s a good chance this could even get down to 7 before meeting resistance from Texas money.
The Bears have covered three of their last four games because of large spreads. Baylor has been a double-digit underdog in each of its last five games, but shouldn’t be this week after the early movement. Over has cashed in three of the last four because of an offensive resurgence the last few games.
Texas might be 3-4 under Herman, but this team seems so close to breaking through. The Longhorns haven’t failed to cover a spread since the season opener against Maryland and has nearly knocked off USC, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State this season. It feels like one big win might be all it needs for everything to fall into place.
Letdown, Lookahead Situation
This is a trap game for Texas. The Longhorns have got to be tired after the last three weeks and are probably looking at this game as a welcome relief. Texas has played three of the best teams in the Big 12 and went to overtime with two of them. That includes last week against Oklahoma State where the Longhorns were good enough on defense to take the game to overtime knotted at 10 before a Sam Ehlinger interception doomed them to a three-point loss.
The week after this game, Texas goes on the road to face the toughest team in the conference, TCU. You can bet that some members of the coaching staff are already prepping for that one and there are going to be multiple players with an eye on that game as well. It will be up to Herman to keep the team focused here.
Key Stat
There aren’t many defenses worse than Baylor. The Bears have allowed at least 33 points to all but one opponent this season and even gave up 48 to a mediocre FCS team in their season opener.
Teams have been able to move the ball on Baylor’s defense with ease. The Bears are in the bottom five in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, and are in the bottom 20 in terms of rushing yards allowed too. West Virginia could have scored more points on Baylor last week, but took the foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter and that almost doomed the Mountaineers.
Free ATS Pick
Baylor doesn’t have to worry about a potential look-ahead problem. All small schools in Texas circle their dates against the Longhorns at the start of the season, and the Bears will be fired up for this one. They will be playing with abandon from the opening kickoff to the final whistle and pull off the upset special.
College Football Odds: Baylor 31, Texas 28
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