College Football ATS Picks - Texas at Iowa State Game Preview

College Football ATS Picks

Ames will be rocking on Thursday night when the Texas Longhorns come to town. Texas might be just 1-2, but looks better than it did at the tail end of the Charlie Strong era and that improvement has the fanbase excited that the team is moving in the right direction. However, now the program must take on the Iowa State Cyclones on the road and try to avenge the most embarrassing loss of the Charlie Strong era. Another loss here would really sting for Texas and send a message that this team is still miles away from being a contender.

This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, September 28, 2017,

at 8 p.m. ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Texas -5.5
Iowa State +5.5
Over/Under: Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

Both teams had last Saturday off in anticipation of this game, so both sides should be well rested and ready to rumble.

Iowa State has looked good in Matt Campbell’s second year at the helm and might be ready to turn the corner. The Cyclones are one of two undefeated teams left in the Big 12 with a 3-0 ATS mark and could be 3-0 SU if not how the game against arch rival Iowa ended. This is a solid team and that’s the reason why the spread is so short.

The Longhorns were blitzed by Maryland in their season opener, but have responded well in their last two games. Texas easily covered against San Jose State at home and almost knocked off USC in the LA Coliseum. That win would have put Texas on the map, but the team wasn’t able to get over the hump in the end.

Last Meeting

The last time these two teams met in Ames ended up being one of the worst losses in program history for Texas. Charlie Strong’s bunch couldn’t do a thing on offense all game long against Iowa State as the Longhorns finished with a scant 204 total yards of offense and were shut out by the Cyclones defense.

There’s been a lot of turnover at Texas and the coaching staff and most of the players have changed, but the loss still looms large. The fact that the Longhorns couldn’t do a lick on offense against the Cyclones hastened the departure of Charlie Strong and his defense being unable to stop Iowa State’s tepid running game only made things worse.

Matchup to Watch

Heading into the season, Tom Herman made it clear that true freshman Sam Ehlinger would see some action this year. Ehlinger was one of the prized recruits of Herman’s first class and is considered a natural fit to run Herman’s option.

He was supposed to take a back seat to Shane Buechele, but after Buechele suffered a shoulder injury in the opener, Ehlinger has started the last two. He is a more natural runner than his teammate and is coming along in the passing game. It sounds like Buechele might be healthy enough to play in this one, but Herman has not made a determination of how snaps will be split. If Buechele is healthy, he will start, but there will be a healthy dose of Ehlinger too.

Free ATS Pick

Iowa State has one of the toughest runners in the country in David Montgomery. According to Jake Trotter of ESPN, Montgomery led the nation in broken tackles before last week’s games and has no problem running through arm tackles. Iowa State will try to wear down this front with him.

This is a tough trip for the Longhorns. They have the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma next week and will surely be more focused on that one. However, they can’t sleep on this Cyclones team or else they will get wiped out.

All told, I like Iowa State a lot in this game and think they have a chance for the outright upset on the strength of an offense that has shown real improvement.

College Football Odds: Longhorns 31, Cyclones 28

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