The Texas Longhorns look very close to breaking through. After a brutal loss in their opener to Maryland, Tom Herman has made sure this team has been competitive in every other game so far this season. Texas almost beat USC in Los Angeles and nearly knocked off both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Now the Longhorns get another shot at a big dog when they travel to take on the TCU Horned Frogs.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 4, 2017, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas +6.5
TCU -6.5
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
Early action has been all over Texas in this one. The Longhorns opened as eight-point underdogs to the Horned Frogs, but that line was quickly bet down to 6.5. There is a little bit of juice coming in on TCU now and this line may end up closing at 7.
It’s not hard to see why bettors have been backing the Longhorns. Texas is 6-0-1 ATS since the loss to Maryland and has looked very frisky against the best teams on its schedule. Herman is really looking like the right hire despite the 4-4 record at this point in the season.
Turnovers killed TCU’s chance of an unbeaten season last week in Ames. The Horned Frogs turned the ball over three times and that was all she wrote against a feisty Cyclones squad. It’s a shame that another great defensive performance was wasted. The Horned Frogs allowed a grand total of 44 points to four Big 12 opponents in the month of October and all four games sailed under the total.
Matchup to Watch
TCU is one of the hardest teams to run on in the country. The Horned Frogs are the third-best run defense in the nation and are allowing just 2.3 yards per run. No offense has really had success running against them, but to be fair they have only played two teams that want to keep the ball on the ground in Arkansas and Kansas State. Still, both those ground games were very limited against TCU.
The Longhorns have been trying to establish the run with quarterback Sam Ehlinger, but haven’t had a ton of success in that regard. Texas has a run game in the bottom half of the nation and the team is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on the year.
To beat TCU, Ehlinger will have to put the ball in the air and that has been a dangerous proposition for Texas.
Player to Watch
Kenny Hill is the motor for the Horned Frogs offense but he has had some ups and downs. Hill really struggled against Iowa State and that killed his team’s chances. Hill has lit up all the bad defenses on the schedule to his credit, yet can’t quite seem to crack the tough ones.
Although he is a running threat, Sonny Cumbie has had Hill work out of the pocket this season and hasn’t utilized his legs. In such a crucial matchup, you have to wonder whether or not that will change.
Free ATS Pick
For the second straight season, TCU can cripple Texas’ chances of going to a bowl here. A loss would send the Longhorns to 4-5 and put them in a precarious spot with a road trip to Morgantown and a home game against Texas Tech still left to play.
There are some calling for a letdown, lookahead spot here. TCU just suffered a tough loss and has a showdown against Oklahoma next week. Gary Patterson won’t let this team look past a tough Texas team though and will come up with a great gameplan that leads to a comfortable TCU win.
College Football Odds: TCU 30, Texas 13
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