College Football ATS Picks - Texas at USC Game Preview

Texas didn’t look good in a season-opening loss to Maryland, and even after bouncing back last time out, it will be a big underdog on the road in this one. The Trojans have an impressive offense and it could be a lot to ask for the Longhorns to keep it in check.

USC has moved up to No. 4 in the national rankings and is angling for a College Football Playoff spot at the end of the year. The Trojans can’t afford any slip-ups, including in this matchup against Texas.

This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 16, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas +15
USC -15
Over/Under 67

Odds Analysis

USC is more than a two touchdown favorite, which is a large spread against a big-conference foe like Texas. Even so, the Trojans have gotten 53 percent of the early action to cover. The scoring total is high as points could be lighting up the scoreboard regularly in this one, and the “over” is the much more popular wager in the earlygoing.

The Longhorns are a +492 underdog on the moneyline, and the bettors prefer that wager since it pays off nicely. USC is listed at -675 to win on the moneyline.

Player to Watch

Sam Darnold -- The USC quarterback is one of the elite signal-callers in the country. He hasn’t totally turned it on this season but could be in line for a big game.

Darnold struggled in the first game of the year, throwing for 289 yards against Western Michigan but with a pair of interceptions as the Trojans took awhile to pull away. He looked better against a stout Stanford defense last week.

Darnold was 21-of-26 for 316 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. He needs to limit the turnovers as they could be a problem in close games, but Darnold is super talented and Texas will have trouble slowing down the USC passing game. With a good season, Darnold is expected to be one of the first quarterbacks taken in next year’s NFL draft.

Historical Angle

These two teams played in one of the most memorable college football games of all-time. Vince Young and the Longhorns shocked the Trojans for the national championship in 2005 when the dual-threat quarterback scampered into the end zone as the game winded down.

That USC team had Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White and a ton of other stars. Neither program is at that level any more but the Trojans are definitely closer. Both programs are in fertile recruiting ground but aren’t on the same level as teams like Alabama or Ohio State.

Free ATS Pick

Texas rolled to a 56-0 win over San Jose State last time out, but it’s hard to ignore the 51-41 loss to Maryland to open the year. while the offense is tied for 15th in the country by averaging 45.5 points per game, the defense could be in for a long night.

If the Longhorns had this game at home they would likely have a chance at the upset. However, USC has the more well-rounded roster and the home field advantage. Look for Darnold to dominate from start to finish as USC should win this one by scoring a ton of points.

However, the spread is slightly too high as Texas should find enough offense to hang around. The “over” is the right call in what should be a shootout.

College Football Odds: USC 41, Texas 31

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