The Oklahoma Sooners have no margin for error. After a stunning loss to Iowa State, the Sooners still should control their own destiny in their pursuit for the College Football Playoff thanks to an early season win over Ohio State in Columbus. However, you don’t get many weeks off in the Big 12 and the Sooners will be tested this week by a Texas Tech Red Raiders squad that pushed them to the brink in a high scoring shootout last year in Lubbock.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 28, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at OU Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Tech -20
Oklahoma +20
Over/Under 73
Odds Analysis
Oklahoma started the season looking like one of the teams to beat. The Sooners ripped UTEP, Ohio State, and Tulane in their first three games and climbed all the way to No. 2 in the rankings.
However, things have not gone well since the Sooners entered Big 12 play. Oklahoma has failed to cover against all four conference opponents it has faced and every game has been decided by one possession.
The Red Raiders looked good through the first five games of the season, but have come apart a little bit over their last two. They blew a big lead over West Virginia in Morgantown and lost by 11 points, and could only muster 13 points at home against Iowa State last week. Texas Tech averaged just 5.1 yards per throw in that game and that’s not good enough to win.
Last Meeting
A host of school, Big 12, and NCAA records fell when these teams met last season. Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 66-59 in a game where there wasn’t even a concept of defense. Both teams ended up with 854 total yards of offense, and there were 76 total first downs in the game.
Most of the attention went to Pat Mahomes. Mahomes was a one-man show for Texas Tech amassing 819 of the team’s yards. He threw 88 passes for 734 yards and five touchdowns and picked up 85 yards and two touchdowns with his legs. Mark Stoops defense was totally unprepared to stop him in any way.
The game from Mahomes overshadowed career performances from Baker Mayfield and Joe Mixon. Mixon was able to pick up 377 total yards and five touchdowns on 35 touches, while Mayfield threw for 545 yards and seven touchdowns on just 36 passes.
Player to Watch
With all of Oklahoma’s other offensive weapons gone, it’s been the Baker Mayfield show this season in Norman. Mayfield has been devastatingly efficient and it’s hard to not consider him the best quarterback in the country. He is thriving in Lincoln Riley’s offense, completing 74 percent of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt. Mayfield has the legs to beat defenders too, giving him another dimension others don’t have.
Texas Tech no longer has Mahomes and needs to somewhat limit Mayfield if it hopes to pull out a win. The Red Raiders have a much better defense than they have in years past, but haven’t played a quarterback like Mayfield yet. They were lit up by Mason Rudolph when they played Oklahoma State and it’s hard to imagine they will do better against Mayfield.
Free ATS Pick
Stoops is once again having trouble shutting down Big 12 offenses. For whatever reason, opposing offensive coordinators know how to beat his schemes and that has been the main reason behind Oklahoma’s struggles. Texas Tech has scored at least 27 points on this defense every year under Kliff Kingsbury and will likely have success again. That will help the Red Raiders to cover this large spread.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 42, Texas Tech 27
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