Off an impressive 65-19 thrashing of Kansas as 14.5-point road chalk, the Texas Tech Red Raiders will stay on the road and head to Morgantown for a premiere Big 12 showdown with the West Virginia Mountaineers. Dana Holgorsen’s kids represented well in Ft. Worth by giving No. 6 ranked TCU a major run for their money. At 1-1 within the conference, a win is crucial for the Mounty’s if they have any plans of heading to Big D to participate in the conference title game.
This matchup in Week 7 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 14, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Milan Puskar Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPNU.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Tech +6West Virginia -6O/U 80
Odds Analysis
Having already secured wins at both Houston and Kansas, early betting has tilted towards the Red Raiders with the betting line freefalling from the 6-point opener down to +3. A major case of reverse line movement has infiltrated this line with over 60 percent of the handle riding the Mountaineers. Cooler heads should prevail in this one with WVU being slighted. I expect the betting line to trickle up back in their favor by kickoff.
This rivalry has seen a total posted at 70-plus points four of the last five times they’ve met on the gridiron. Only once in those five meetings did the total close below 60 points. And wouldn’t you know it that was the only game that ultimately played to a high scorer. With both clubs failing to live up to playing to shootouts as expected, this year’s tilt has seen the total get bet down to 79 from the 80-point opener.
Player to Watch
Will Grier – The former Florida Gator has settled in nicely as the Mounty’s QB1 throwing for 1,740 yards and a rock solid 16:4 TD/INT ratio in his five starts. After getting to the Horned Frogs No. 104 ranked pass defense for 366 yards and a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, he now gets the pleasure of running up against the Red Raiders No. 124 ranked pass defense that’s only been able to stifle Eastern Washington and Kansas through the air. For WVU to match points in an expected high scorer, Grier is going to have to be firing on all cylinders to give his club enough of a cushion to not only win, but cover this reduced spread.
Key Stat
386.6 – Pat Mahomes who? Nic Shimonek has stepped right in to fill his void and shined in the process. The senior has thrown for a whopping 1,8111 yards and a 14:3 TD/INT ratio since taking over full time as the Red Raiders QB1. Coming off his best showing off the season by completing just under 80 percent of his passes against the Jayhawks, Texas Tech is going to need their gunslinger to pick right back up where he left off for it to have a shot of springing the upset in Morgantown. Should the Red Raiders be able to take advantage of the Mounty’s porous run defense ( No. 109 ), he should have a field day getting the ball downfield once the home team overcompensates to stop it. If not, Texas Tech will drop its fourth straight in the series.
Free ATS Pick
WVU is in my opinion the better of these two teams, and they’ve held the upper hand in the recent rivalry by winning each of the last three meetings. I’m not exactly sure what the betting public is so enamored with when it comes to the Red Raiders in this matchup. Sure, Kliff Kingsbury’s squad can put points up with the best of them, but they also hemorrhage points and yards as well. West Virginia possesses the better of these two defenses, and with the betting public allowing us to pay less of a premium to back them at home, I’ll gladly make the bet and lay the short chalk with the home team. I expect this one to live up to the high scoring billing as well.
College Football Odds: Mountaineers 51, Red Raiders 41
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