The Miami Hurricanes have been forced to sit on the sidelines due to actual hurricanes over the last couple weeks, so it goes without saying that Mark Richt’s kids will be eager to get back onto the playing field for their first matchup against an FBS opponent. Be careful what you wish for however with the Toledo Rockets not your average MAC team that will just pay South Beach a visit and leave all black and blue.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on the ACC Network.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo +12.5
Miami -12.5
O/U 60.5
Odds Analysis
Miami initially opened up as 13-point favorites to get the best of the Rockets on Saturday. While the number to beat fell to -12.5 soon after, it bounced right back up to -13 with better than 77 percent of the betting action riding the Hurricanes. With Toledo entering this game undefeated at 3-0, it’s tough to see this number climbing much higher with the fear of rust settling into Miami due to having its last two games postponed.
The total was originally released at 60.5, but was immediately bet down to where it currently sits at 57.5. Toledo has partaken in some video game-esque matchups to date, but none of them came against a defense as stout as the Hurricanes. Under bettors are expecting a low scorer at a 63 percent clip.
Player to Watch
Logan Woodside – the Rockets starting quarterback has been the pacemaker of Toledo’s offense with his ability to torch opposing defenses through the air. To date, he’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and completed 65.9 percent of his passes. He’s thrown 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and enters this tilt with the Canes off torching Tulsa for 458 yards and 6 touchdowns to go along with 66.7 percent completions.
He’s built up a solid rapport with wide receivers Cody Thompson and Diontae Johnson, and this trio will need to step up huge with Miami likely to limit the Rockets on the ground. Miami is young in the secondary, so Rocket’ backers only hope to cash a ticket would be to take advantage with Woodside leading the charge.
Matchup to Watch
With Toledo giving up an average of 220 yards on the ground ( No. 116 ) and allowing opposing ball carriers to average 5.8 yards per carry ( No. 113 ), it’s safe to say Miami will look to control the pace of the game with its ground attack. The Canes ran the ball 34 times and racked up 322 yards at 9.5 yards per rush in their season opener against overmatched Bethune Cookman. While it’s tough to expect that type of output in this spot having last played a game back on September 2, that won’t stop Miami from trying to match it.
Mark Walton is in line for a huge showing in this one after gouging the Wildcats for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 16 carries. Travis Homer added another 108 yards on 11 carries, so this duo is sure to get theirs in this matchup. Dominating on the ground will be of utmost importance to a Miami side that wants to exert its will on its opponents by shortening games and relying on its defense to bring it on home.
Free ATS Pick
It’s going to be a hot and humid one in Miami Gardens on Saturday afternoon with temps expected to be in the low 90s. That bodes terribly for the Rockets who could find themselves sucking wind in the second half. The last thing you want to deal with is a ground game punishing you when you can barely breathe. Look for Toledo to come up with a few big plays and put some points on the board, but in the end, it won’t be enough to stick within the number against a Miami team that’s simply just bigger, deeper and badder than its MAC counterpart. Lay the chalk and look for Miami to ground the Rockets.
College Football Odds: Hurricanes 37, Rockets 17
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