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This Saturday’s game between the Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves will be for the de facto Sun Belt Championship and the conference’s top spot in bowl seeding. Troy and Arkansas State both have just one loss in conference and are tied with Appalachian State. However, the winner of this game will have played a much tougher schedule.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Saturday, December 2, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Troy +1
Arkansas State -1
Over/Under 59
Odds Analysis
Early action in this game has been on Troy and the over. The Red Wolves opened as a two-point favorite, but the line has dropped a point as of this post. The total opened at 57.5 and quickly moved up to 59.
Arkansas State has been a solid team against the spread all season long. Although the Red Wolves never got the chance to host the Hurricanes, they have made the most of their season and are 7-3 ATS at this point. The under has been a great bet lately as before their shootout win over Louisiana Monroe, four straight games had fallen short of the total.
The Trojans have been everyone’s darlings since going into Death Valley and knocking off LSU at night. However, this team has been a tough one to bet on aside from that. They are 4-7 ATS this season as they have played down to their competition all year long. Under cashed in Troy’s first seven games, but the over has hit in three of the last four.
Player to Watch
Justice Hansen has been the best quarterback in the Sun Belt all year long and had his most impressive game of the season last week against Louisiana Monroe. Hansen set the school record with 520 yards and four touchdowns through the air in a 67-50 shootout victory over the Warhawks and added two rushing touchdowns as well.
He has had just two bad games all season long. Hansen threw four interceptions and completed less than 50 percent of his passes against Georgia Southern and threw four picks on the road against South Alabama too.
Other than that, he has been fantastic. Hansen has been carving up opposing defenses all season and his success has made this offense as good as it is. He might have a hard time against Troy though. The Trojans have one of the top defenses in the country, but have been somewhat susceptible through the air.
Key Stat
There’s no denying just how good this Trojans defense is. Troy has the best defensive numbers in the Sun Belt and it’s been very difficult to run against this front seven. The Trojans are allowing under three yards per carry and are just one of seven defenses in the county to hold that distinction.
Don’t be surprised to see Troy’s linebackers drift back into coverage more often in this one as Arkansas State has not been as good at running the ball this season. Warren Wand has had a nice year, but for the most part the Red Wolves get it done through the air.
Free ATS Pick
It’s not an easy thing to win in Jonesboro. Arkansas State has won all of its home games by at least 18 points, but Troy will be by far its toughest opponent. The Trojans have played down to their competition, but have only struggled in one of their last five games.
For that reason, I like Troy to get it done and pull off the slight upset here. I trust the Trojans defense to stop Hansen through the air and pick up their 10th win of the season.
College Football Odds: Troy 28, Arkansas State 23
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