College Football ATS Picks - Troy at Boise State Preview

The Troy Trojans put together a fantastic season in 2016, winning 10 games and even sneaking into the top-25 nationally after a great start. They went toe-to-toe with the national champion Clemson Tigers and hope to push another one of college football’s better programs in this year’s non-conference schedule.

Troy is hitting the road to take on the Boise State Broncos, which is perennially one of the best non-power-conference teams in the country. Boise State hit double-digit wins as well a season ago and will be double-digit favorites, but it can’t take Troy lightly.

This will be an intriguing matchup between two of the better small-school teams in college football in 2017.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017 at 3:45 p.m. ET at Albertson’s Stadium.

NCAA Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Troy +11
Boise State -11
Over/Under 62.5

Odds Analysis

The Broncos are smaller favorites than usual against a small-school opponent, and that’s a nod to the job the Trojans did in 2016. However, the betting public is jumping on the Broncos at this spread, as Boise State is being wagered on at a 67 percent clip to cover.

The scoring total might be a little low as 57 percent of the betting public has chosen the “over” in this matchup. The Broncos are -450 on the moneyline, and unsurprisingly, the majority of the money there is going on Troy. The Trojans pays off nicely at +351, which is a lucrative gamble for those who have a good feeling about their upset bid.

Key Stat

2,183. That’s the number of yards from scrimmage the Broncos must make up for after losing star running back Jeremy McNichols. He carried the ball 314 times for 1,709 yards and 23 touchdowns a season ago while adding 37 receptions for 474 yards and four more scores.

McNichols was the pace-setters of the offense and without him Boise State needs a new star. Enter Cedric Wilson, a talented wide receivers who hauled in 56 passes for 1,129 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He could post even stronger numbers this year as the Broncos open it up with a lethal passing attack.

Quarterback Brett Rypien threw for 3,646 yards with 24 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in 2016 and the passing game will focus on Wilson often as he is the most established pass-catcher, by far, within the offense.

Matchup To Watch

Troy offense vs. Boise State defense -- The Trojans lost a lot from their defensive unit after last season, so the offense will need to carry the team early on. Quarterback Brandon Silvers returns after a nice year in which he threw for 3,180 yards and had 23 touchdowns, though he did throw 12 interceptions.

Jordan Chunn ran for 1,288 yards a season ago and is also back, so there should be good balance there. The Trojans have their three interior offensive linemen back, so as long as the tackles can hold up, this team may be able to score some points in this one.

Boise State only gave up 23.3 points per game last season and believes it has the core that can limit opposing offenses again.

Free ATS Pick

This is a really fun matchup early on. Boise State is the superior team but Troy will not be intimidated. The home field advantage is a big help for the Broncos, who are going to be involved in a tight one from start to finish but will squeak out a victory.

Even so, expect Troy to cover this spread because it is a bit too large considering the Trojans’ recent success and ability to hang with good teams. The scoring total seems right on and that one could go either way.

College Football Odds: Boise State 31, Troy 28

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