The Troy Trojans were considered a dark horse to claim the Group of Five spot for a New Year’s Day Bowl at the start of the season, but this team has hit some speedbumps the last few weeks. Troy has barely squeaked by teams like New Mexico State and Akron and now must face one of the best teams in the country. For their part, the LSU Tigers have struggled too. They were blitzed by Mississippi State two weeks ago and weren’t able to really put Syracuse away at home last week. Those are big issues and may spell a quick end to the Ed Orgeron era.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 7 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Troy +19
LSU -19
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Troy has yet to cover a single game this season. Although the Trojans came close in their first game, failing to cover by just a half-point against Boise State, this team couldn’t cover as a large favorite against three so-so opponents. They nearly lost to both New Mexico State and Akron and that doesn’t bode well here. The defense has been great though and that has led to all four of their games going under the number.
LSU started the season looking strong with a dominant performance in a win over BYU. Since then, things haven’t gone so well for Ed Orgeron and the Tigers. The Orange were only down by two against this team with under five minutes to play in the fourth last week and the defense has been a major issue. The Tigers are 1-2-1 ATS this season.
Matchup to Watch
It’s only a matter of time until Myles Brennan takes over the starting quarterback job in Baton Rouge. Brennan was one of the highest touted quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school in Mississippi and has seen more and more action as the season has gone on. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada has used packages just for him and Orgeron has already announced that he will see more action this week against Troy.
That’s got to get to Danny Etling at some point. Etling had a great game against Syracuse last week, throwing for over 11 yards per pass, but he has to keep looking over his shoulder. He isn’t as gifted of a passer as Brennan, but right now he is more consistent.
Key Stat
LSU’s defense has really had some issues the past few weeks. The Tigers were gashed on the ground by Mississippi State and then allowed Syracuse to throw for over 300 yards last week.
The Tigers are better than this. This defense has more talent than almost every other team and was supposed to be fantastic yet again this season. Dave Aranda is one of the top defensive coordinators in the nation, but he needs to go back to the drawing board with some of his schemes.
It doesn’t help matters that Arden Key has struggled. Key was banged up for most of the offseason and has been little more than a ghost on the field since his return. The defense needs him to step up.
Free ATS Pick
Troy doesn’t have anyone that is going to wow you on the offensive end, but this team keeps doing just enough to win thanks to a very good defense. In many ways, this team is a light version of LSU.
However, I think Troy will be able to get the cover here. Laying 19 is a lot to ask with this LSU team and Troy has played reasonably well. I don’t think the Trojans will have much of a chance to get a win, but they can squeak out a cover.
College Football Odds: LSU 27, Troy 17
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