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With all the attention given to their in-state rival, it’s easy to forget the South Florida Bulls still control their own destiny when it comes to winning the AAC and grabbing the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. South Florida is 8-1 and if it beats UCF on Thanksgiving weekend, it will win the AAC East. First things first for the Bulls though, they must take care of business against the 2-8 Tulsa Golden Hurricane at home on Thursday night.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Thursday, November 16, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tulsa +23
South Florida -23
Odds Analysis
It’s been a year to forget for Tulsa. Although the Golden Hurricane can smile in knowing that they were able to play spoiler against Houston, winning by 28 points as a 13.5-point underdog, that was the school’s only win in conference play. Tulsa is 2-5 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in six of the last seven.
South Florida has not been able to cover a spread for a month now. The Bulls have been massive favorites all season long, being listed as a double-digit favorite in every game this year. Although they stumbled a little bit early, they found their stride against Illinois and looked like an unstoppable wrecking ball after that. However, it couldn’t cover against Tulane and Connecticut and lost outright to Houston. The under is 6-3 in South Florida games this season.
Player to Watch
The Bulls have been an offensive juggernaut this season and that’s the reason they keep being listed as a double-digit favorite. Quinton Flowers has been the main reason behind this.
Flowers is a dynamic runner. He isn’t on pace to have the numbers on the ground that he did last year, but is going to go over 1,000 yards once again. Flowers is deceptively fast due to his long strides, but he can leave opponents in the dust nonetheless.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, he has regressed as a passer in his senior season. Flowers is completing just 55.1 percent of his passes and is averaging a half-yard less per attempt than he was the last two seasons.
Don’t be surprised if South Florida attacks Tulsa through the air early and often. The Golden Hurricane are absolutely terrible in pass coverage, allowing 10.3 yards per pass. Tulsa has been lit up through the air this season and Flowers should have plenty of chances.
Key Stat
Tulsa has not gotten good play from the quarterback position this season. Neither Luke Skipper nor Chad President has played very well and that has derailed Tulsa’s campaign as much as an ineffective pass defense.
Skipper and President have combined to throw five touchdowns all season long and neither quarterback has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions. The two are completing just 55.5 percent of their passes all season.
That has crippled a very good run game from being able to do much. Although Tulsa has put up good numbers on the ground, the Golden Hurricane can’t win shootouts because other teams end up stacking the line.
Free ATS Pick
If you’re going to bet on Tulsa in this one, it’s probably because you think South Florida is looking ahead to Central Florida next week. While that might be true, this isn’t an ordinary week where USF would just have six days to prep as that game is on a Saturday.
That’s why I like South Florida to cover the spread. The Bulls are a much better team than the Golden Hurricane and the extra time will ensure they aren’t looking ahead.
College Football Odds: South Florida 45, Tulsa 20
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