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It’s been a disappointing season for both the UNLV Rebels and the New Mexico Lobos. Both schools came into the season thinking that they could make a bowl, but that’s only a possibility for 4-6 UNLV at this point. However, the Rebels have to win two straight road games in order to get to 6-6, starting with the Lobos. As for New Mexico, this has been a massively disappointing season after the school went 9-4 in 2016.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Friday, November 17, 2017, at 9:30 p.m. ET at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
UNLV +2
New Mexico -2
Odds Analysis
Mountain West teams seem to be wise to New Mexico’s scheme now. The Lobos have been toothless on offense in conference this season, only having real success against Air Force. Otherwise, it’s been a disaster. In New Mexico’s other five conference games the Lobos have scored a combined 51 points. With that in mind, it’s no shock to learn that the under is 8-2 in New Mexico games this season and the school has failed to cover in each of its last three.
At least the Rebels have kept Las Vegas natives happy with their performance this season. UNLV is 6-4 ATS and has been able to win two games outright as an underdog. Under has cashed in six of the 10 games.
Matchup to Watch
Last season, New Mexico’s unique offense could not be stopped. The Lobos ran the triple option out of the pistol and that flummoxed defenses. They averaged 6.6 yards per carry and had two 1,000-yard rushers.
This year, the Lobos are averaging five yards per carry and might not have anyone run for even 800 yards. Defenses have been able to put the clamps on this scheme and that has effected every other aspect of New Mexico’s team. The quarterbacks have had less room to pass with opponents having a better time stopping the run and the defense has been on the field for longer too.
New Mexico might be able to have some success against this Rebels defense. UNLV is ranked 120th in the nation in rushing defense and is allowing 5.1 yards per carry.
Key Stat
UNLV is very similar to New Mexico in that it wants to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. The Rebels quarterbacks are performing slightly better through the air than the Lobos quarterbacks are, but not by much.
Instead, it’s all about the ground game. Lexington Thomas has been very good this season for UNLV. Thomas is well past the 1,000-yard mark and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He has not been able to get going lately though. In his past three games, Thomas was unable to surpass the century mark and he averaged under five yards a carry in that stretch.
Quarterback Armani Rogers has given the team a spark since replacing Johnny Stanton as the team’s starter. Rogers has been the mobile threat that Stanton was not and has been the go-to guy although he has worse passing numbers.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams like to run the ball, and UNLV has been better at it. However, while the Rebels have been pretty bad at stopping the run, the Lobos have been able to rely on their front seven this season.
New Mexico is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry and its ability to stop the run will be the difference here. The Lobos will limit UNLV’s tandem from doing much against them on the ground, while their running attack will be very proficient. Look for a double-digit victory for the home team in this one.
College Football Odds: New Mexico 34, UNLV 23
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