Things are falling apart for the USC Trojans. USC was most people’s choice to win the PAC-12 at the start of the year and Sam Darnold was hailed as a future No. 1 draft pick. However, both Darnold and the Trojans have fallen woefully short of expectations. They have only played two complete games all season and last week’s loss to Notre Dame essentially takes them out of the playoff picture. Now, they have to travel to Tempe for a tough test against Todd Graham’s Arizona State Sun Devils.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 28, 2017, at 10:45 p.m. ET at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC -2.5
Arizona State +2.5
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
Something has got into the Sun Devils defense the last two weeks. This unit has long struggled under Todd Graham, but has been the catalyst in Arizona State’s two most recent wins. They held Washington to 230 yards of offense and seven points in a stunning upset of the undefeated Huskies two weeks ago and only allowed 10 points and 265 total yards against Utah last week.
Arizona State has made people a lot of money this season. The Sun Devils have won outright on three separate occasions as a double-digit underdog and are an underdog once again in this one. They opened as a three-point underdog, but are now a 2.5-point underdog.
USC has not been a good ATS team this season. The Trojans have only covered one time in eight games, a big victory over a good Stanford team that gave us the impression that they were for real this season. Aside from that, they have failed to win bettors money and have mostly fallen laughably short of the number.
Matchup to Watch
The Trojans do not have a good run defense. USC is 78th in the country in run defense, allowing over 175 yards per game. This unit was gashed last week by Notre Dame, who piled on the yards, running for 377 yards and averaging eight yards per carry against this unit. The front seven has been a little banged up, particularly the defensive tackle position, but this team has too much talent to allow 4.7 yards per carry on the year.
Graham would love to run the ball if he can. However, Arizona State has been one of the worst running teams in the country this year. The Sun Devils are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and neither Kalen Ballage nor Demario Richard has had much success.
That has put the pressure on quarterback Manny Wilkins to get the job done, and he has had a hard time finding success through the air these last three weeks. Wilkins is averaging just six yards per pass in Arizona State’s last three games and has thrown three interceptions without a touchdown.
Player to Watch
Ronald Jones II is USC’s main running back and the Trojans will want to establish the run against the Sun Devils defense. Darnold has continued to make mistakes in the passing game, and Jones is averaging almost six yards per carry this season.
He had his worst performance of the year last week against Notre Dame as injuries to two starting offensive linemen dealt a huge blow to the team’s run game. Still, he is the only real running threat for the Trojans as Stephen Carr is dealing with a foot injury.
Free ATS Pick
Arizona State is going to be a popular upset pick all week long. It’s tough to play in Tempe at night, and USC has looked vulnerable all season long. However, with this short of a line, we’re going to go with the Trojans to rally and win a close one.
College Football Odds: USC 31, Arizona State 27
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