No one thought that both of these teams would be undefeated at this point in the season. Sure, everyone thought that the USC Trojans would probably be 3-0 heading into this game. USC entered the season ranked in the Top 5 by most observers and has remained unblemished despite some hiccups. The same can not be said for the California Golden Bears. Most Golden Bears fans would have been elated at a 2-1 start given their tumultuous offseason, but instead they are 3-0 and have a great chance at making a bowl game. Knocking off USC is a huge ask though.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC -16.5
California +16.5
Over/Under 63.5
Odds Analysis
Early action has come in on the Trojans in this one. USC opened as a 15-point favorite and that line has moved up to 16.5 points. Despite this being the first time the Trojans have ventured outside of Los Angeles,
USC enters this game 3-0 SU, but just 1-2 ATS. The Trojans looked fantastic in their win against Stanford two weeks ago, but really struggled against both Western Michigan and Texas. The Longhorns nearly knocked off the Trojans, taking them to overtime and might have won had Sam Ehlinger not fumbled at USC’s 2 in overtime.
The Golden Bears already have two outright wins as underdogs, and although they failed to cover against Weber State, that makes them a very profitable team heading into this one. Beating a downtrodden Ole Miss team at home was not expected by the oddsmakers, but the defense rose up and intercepted Shea Patterson three times to help deliver the victory.
Coaching Angle
Justin Wilcox wasn’t considered a great hire, but the former linebackers coach for Cal showed that he has what it takes to be a great head coach. Wilcox had been a defensive coordinator for five teams over the span of 11 seasons before getting a shot as a head coach and has made the most of it so far.
Cal has not had a good defense in quite some time and typically had one of the worst defenses in the country in the last few years under Sonny Dykes. That has started to improve under Wilcox.
Although this defense doesn’t have a lot of talent and is still giving up gobs of yardage, they are playing tough and able to get stops when it matters. To be fair, they have been pretty lucky to only give up the amount of points they yielded so far, but the future looks bright in Berkeley.
Player to Watch
What has happened to the Heisman candidacy of Sam Darnold? Darnold has looked painfully mediocre at times this season and although he has been a good distributor, he is committing way too many mistakes. Darnold has already been picked off six times through three games and is not looking like the sharp signal caller we saw last season. He is still able to hit his talented receivers for long games, but has struggled to find consistency. Darnold needs to be better with the ball in his hands going forward if USC wants to win the conference.
Free ATS Pick
This is a tricky situation for USC. Although the Trojans are certainly hungry for another PAC-12 win, a more dangerous foe awaits next Friday in Washington State. USC knows the Cougars will be all fired up for that one and might be looking past Cal just a little bit.
USC is one of the few big road favorites I like this week. The Trojans should put up big numbers against a Cal defense that is still struggling to stop certain schemes.
College Football Odds: Trojans 42, Golden Bears 20
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