The USC Trojans seem to do this every year. USC came into the season highly ranked and were favored to win the PAC 12 after how it closed out last year. However, the Trojans struggled at the start of the year and the only team they were able to decisively beat was Stanford. Eventually, the school collapsed in a 35-point loss to Notre Dame and everyone wrote off the Trojans. Of course, USC responded by scoring a combined 97 points on the Arizona schools as a short favorite the last two weeks and can now clinch the PAC 12 South with a win over the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 4 p.m. ET at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC -12.5
Colorado +12.5
Over/Under 64.5
Odds Analysis
USC began the season 1-7 ATS as Sam Darnold and the offense struggled to put up points. The Trojans have recently found their way though. They carved up both the Wildcats and the Sun Devils and covered both games handily. Each of their last four games has gone over the total.
You had to figure the Buffaloes were going to fall back a little this season. After an amazing 2016 campaign that saw Colorado win the PAC 12 South title, the Buffs are once again in the middle of the pack in the conference. They have gotten trounced by all the good teams in the conference, losing by 27 to Washington, and 28 to Washington State. The Buffs are 3-7 ATS on the year.
This line has come down a little bit from where it opened. Colorado was originally a 13.5-point favorite, but that’s down to 12.5 now.
Matchup to Watch
Ronald Jones II has been fantastic these last two weeks. Jones had his two best games of the season against Arizona and Arizona State, carrying the ball for 410 yards and five touchdowns these last two weeks. Getting Jones on track has opened things up for Sam Darnold, who has been able to find open receivers once again.
Jones should be the primary option against a Colorado team that has really struggled to stop the run. The Buffs are allowing 199.6 yards per game on the ground and every PAC 12 opponent has scored at least 27 points on this defense. Stopping Jones is essential for Colorado to be competitive in this game.
Player to Watch
No running back has seen more action than Phillip Lindsay this season. Lindsay has been asked to be a workhorse for the Buffaloes and has proven to be durable despite his small stature. He is just 5’8, 190 pounds, but has held up to the punishment of carrying the ball 29 times per game on average.
Lindsay was the unsung hero of the Buffaloes shootout loss to Arizona and looked good the next week against Oregon State as well. However, the wear and tear of being used so much might be grinding him down. He has averaged less than five yards per carry in each of the past three games and didn’t break off a run longer than seven yards against Arizona State last weekend.
Free ATS Pick
The Buffaloes have their work cut out for them in this one. Colorado is a decent team, but USC has come alive in recent weeks with Darnold and Jones playing out of their mind. The Trojans defense looked sharp last week too and were the first team to actually limit the dynamic Khalil Tate.
It’s dangerous to lay double digits on the road, but this Colorado team has not been competitive with a quality team yet this season. Look for the Trojans to win big.
College Football Odds: USC 41, Colorado 23
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