The Vanderbilt Commodores learned the hard way last week that defense can only take you so far. At some point, you need to put points on the board and that’s something they failed to do in a blowout loss to Alabama. The No. 21 Florida Gators return home fresh off their 31st straight victory over the Kentucky Wildcats. Jim McElwain’s kids put a ton of energy and emotion into that win, so it will be interesting to see if they can avoid the hangover this week against a stingy ‘Dores outfit.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Vanderbilt +9.5
Florida -9.5
O/U 44
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen some reverse line movement with the side in this game with over 76 percent of the betting handle riding the visiting Commodores. However, the betting line has jumped a half point from 9.5-point to -10 in favor of the homebased Gators. With Florida yet to cover a spread to date, it’s likely this number doesn’t move much further from the opener.
With each side possessing scoring offenses ranked above 100, it comes as no surprise to see the total heading south from the 44-point opener. The betting total was down to 42 at the time of this writing with a tick under 80 percent of the betting handle expecting a low scorer. This number will likely only fall further if not stay put.
Key Stat
33.3% – It’s been more fun watching paint dry than attempting to watch either of these offenses move the chains. Vandy ranks No. 124 in total yards and No. 108 in scoring offense. On the flipside, Florida ranks No. 113 in total yards and No. 102 in scoring offense. If the Commodores are to truly put a scare into the home team and come out of The Swamp with a win like they did back in 2013, the defense must match or surpass the Gators ability to get off the field on 3rd down. Vanderbilt ranks No. 41 in opponent third down conversion percentage, while Florida checks in at No. 22. Preventing Florida to wear its defense out is an absolute must to be successful in this spot.
Motivation Factor
The Commodores just got their tails handed to them last week at home by the Alabama Crimson Tide who thumped them 59-0 and had no issue running up the score after Vandy flapped its gums. Derek Mason’s kids did themselves no favors poking the beast, but it’s been all quiet on the western front leading up to this game. As it should be after getting massacred last week.
However, a win in The Swamp against the Gators would dramatically put the Commodores back on the map in the SEC East. We all know about Florida’s dominance over Kentucky, but did you know it’s owned this rivalry as well? The Gators have won all but one of the last 26 meetings! Vandy has however been more competitive of late in covering three of the last four meetings, and this is the first time since 1985 that the ‘Dores opened as single-digit underdogs away from Nashville.
Free ATS Pick
This is going to be ugly right from the outset. No ifs, ands or buts about it. The market is incredibly low on Vanderbilt now after getting its teeth kicked in last week, but I beg to differ. These teams are almost carbon copies of one another. Sure, Florida is a notch above defensively, but don’t for one second dismiss what the Commodores had done on the field defensively prior to last week’s game. I foresee this tilt being nip and tuck the whole way through. Florida escaped Nashville with a 13-6 win as 11-point road chalk last season, and only squeezed a 9-7 win and non-cover as 21-point home favorites prior to that. Take the points and don’t be shocked if Vandy finds a way.
College Football Odds: Gators 18, Commodores 17
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