College Football ATS Picks - Virginia at Boise State Game Preview

The Boise State Broncos should be 3-0. If not for a fourth quarter collapse against Washington, the Broncos would be ranked and have a shot to finish the year undefeated and get the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Day bowl. Alas, they blew that lead, but have another chance to beat a power five opponent when the Virginia Cavaliers come to town. Virginia has already matched last season’s win total and is looking a lot better in Bronco Mendenhall’s second year at the helm in Charlottesville. A win here would be huge for the psyche of the program.

This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Friday, September 22, 2017,

at 8 p.m. ET at Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Virginia +13
Boise State -13

Odds Analysis

Virginia enters this game at 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Cavaliers have picked up wins against William & Mary and Connecticut, but got trounced at home by Indiana. None of their games have been high scoring this season with no more than 56 points being scored in one of their tilts so far this year. Every one of their totals has been in the 50s and that should be the case again here.

The Broncos almost picked up a backdoor cover against New Mexico last week, scoring the touchdown that put them ahead of the number with three minutes to play, but instead got backdoored after the Lobos scored a meaningless TD with a little over a minute remaining. Boise State is 2-1 ATS on the season with two of its games having gone under the number.

Last Meeting

These teams met in the first part of a home and home in Charlottesville two seasons ago and Boise State’s big victory over UVA was the beginning of the end for Mike London. London was fired before the season was out after the Broncos came into their place and ripped them 56-14. It was a rout from the onset as Boise scored on a pick-six on Virginia’s first possession of the game and didn’t take its foot off the gas pedal the rest of the way.

It was one of the finest games for Brett Rypien. Rypien torched UVA’s secondary to the tune of 321 yards and three touchdowns as the Broncos barely even bothered to run the ball. However, Boise’s star quarterback may not be able to go in this one.

Key Injury

Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin doesn’t say much when it comes to injuries. Rypien appeared to suffer a concussion against Washington State two weeks ago and his status was unclear in the week leading up to the game against New Mexico. It turned out he wouldn’t dress as Montell Cozart got the start in Rypien’s absence and performed decently, but there’s no doubt that the offense wasn’t as effective through the air as it was under Rypien.

His status this week is up in the air too. There is a noticeable difference in the capabilities of these two quarterbacks and the offense changes significantly based on who is in. Wait until later in the week to bet this one as it will be more apparent who is under center then.

Free ATS Pick

Additionally, we have yet to hear anything about the status of David Moa. Boise State’s star defensive lineman was arrested early Saturday morning by local police and it’s unclear whether or not he will be suspended for this game. That would be huge as he was an First Team All-Mountain West selection last season.

It’s safe to say that Virginia looks like the better team to bet here with all the question marks surrounding Boise, but wait to bet on this one.

College Football Odds: Broncos 30, Cavaliers 23

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