The U is back baby! The Miami Hurricanes are the hottest team in college football right now and shot up to the No. 3 spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as a result of their win over Notre Dame last week. Miami is now in line for the No. 2 overall spot if it wins out and Hard Rock Stadium should be a sight to see with thousands of turnover chains shining in the bright Florida sun this weekend. Now, the goal is to avoid a letdown with so much at stake when the Virginia Cavaliers come to town this weekend.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 18, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Virginia +19
Miami -19
Over/Under 50.5
Odds Analysis
Bettors have been more than happy to back the Hurricanes in this one. Miami opened as a 17-point favorite, but the number has risen to 19.
Miami’s defense has been fantastic all season long and has really come up big in its last two games. The Hurricanes gave up a total of 18 points against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame and cruised to victories in both games. That has meant great news if you like to bet unders. Under is 8-1 in Miami games this season and every single one of their conference games has finished short of the total.
Things have gone a lot better for Bronco Mendenhall in his second season at the helm of Virginia. The Cavaliers went just 2-10 in 2016, but are already bowl eligible and have some nice wins to their credit this season. Virginia hammered Boise State and outlasted Georgia Tech, games in which they were underdogs. However, they were never close against Louisville last week and failed to cover.
Key Stat
The Wahoos were gutted by Louisville’s ground game last week. Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals were able to run all over this front seven, tallying 298 yards on the ground on an average of 6.9 yards per carry.
Stopping the run has been a problem for Virginia for most of the year. UVA is ranked 82nd in the nation in run defense, behind even Missouri, and is allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
That’s good news for Miami, because the Hurricanes are going to keep it on the ground as much as they can. Despite the recent results for the Canes, Malik Rosier hasn’t been too impressive. He hit some big plays against North Carolina, but completed just 42 percent of his passes in the narrow victory in Chapel Hill. Against Virginia Tech, Rosier completed half of his passes and threw three picks, and last week he averaged less than six yards an attempt.
Matchup to Watch
Miami’s defense has really stepped up its performance in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have been lights out ever since pulling out a gritty win against Georgia Tech and have swarmed the football.
This defense is allowing just 4.6 yards per play and forcing more turnovers than almost any other team in the country. The turnover chain has had the desired effect of inspiring players and Miami has forced 24 turnovers in nine games this year.
One of the reasons behind Virginia’s turnaround is that the Cavaliers don’t turn the ball over. UVA has turned it over just 12 times this season, something that is synonymous with teams coached by Mendenhall. If Miami can’t turn Virginia over, the Cavaliers should be able to cover the number.
Free ATS Pick
I like the Cavaliers in this one. Although Miami’s defense has been good, the offense has been lacking, and this is too large of a number. The Canes are due for a bit of a letdown after the two big wins in Miami.
College Football Odds: Miami 27, Virginia 17
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