The Oklahoma Sooners are two wins away from earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. Many people have Oklahoma as the best one-loss team due to its win over Ohio State in Columbus and they may have the best chance of any team to make it at this point. The Sooners need to knock off the West Virginia Mountaineers this week and then have a probable date with TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. West Virginia would love to play spoiler though after having it done to them 10 years ago by Pittsburgh.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 25, 2017, at 3:45 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia +23
Oklahoma -23
Over/Under 67.5
Odds Analysis
Oklahoma has had to cover some massive spreads since its win over Ohio State and is just 6-5 ATS on the year as a result. The Sooners failed to cover as a 40-point road favorite against Kansas last week, but still left little doubt as to the result with a 41-3 victory. Oklahoma has been solid ATS at home this season with a 4-1 ATS mark, but the one loss was an outright defeat at the hands of Iowa State.
Dana Holgorsen’s offense has had trouble producing in November. After only having one of their first eight games go under the total, each of the Mountaineers last three games has cruised under the number. Some of that is a reflection of the defenses they have faced, but last week it was largely due to an injury to their star quarterback.
Key Injury
Will Grier was great this season and it’s a shame that he won’t get the chance to take down Oklahoma. Grier has averaged nine yards per pass and threw 34 touchdowns against 12 interceptions during the season. It was a nice showing from the former Florida transfer, who built on what we saw from half a season in Gainesville.
Unfortunately, Grier broke a finger on his throwing hand in the first quarter against Texas and will be out for this game and might miss the bowl game too. WVU might have had a shot to pull the outright upset with Grier, but with backup Chris Chugunov playing instead, that looks like a pipe dream.
Chugunov wasn’t bad against Texas given that he had no prep, but he is no Grier. He has thrown a lot of checkdowns and doesn’t go deep as often as Grier does. That’s good news for an Oklahoma defense that has struggled to stop explosive passing attacks.
Player to Watch
Baker Mayfield is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy now. Mayfield was great last year, but is smashing records with his performance this season.
He has completed almost 71 percent of his passes, but the real testament is his yards per attempt. Mayfield isn’t dinking and dunking, but throwing mid- to long-range passes frequently down the field. He is averaging 11.6 yards per pass attempt this season and has outgunned every quarterback he has faced.
Some may criticize Mayfield for his antics, but that’s just the way he plays and it inspires his teams. After last week’s incident against Kansas, he is going to be benched for at least the first series and maybe more. That will put Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray as the main man in this offense and he should acquit himself well.
Free ATS Pick
Oklahoma is the side to take in this one. The only fear is that Mayfield’s suspension ends up lasting for a half or so. If that happens, West Virginia might be able to get the cover, but otherwise the Sooners will get the job done.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 44, West Virginia 17
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