The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers will meet for just the seventh time ever this week. The last two meetings have been blowouts in favor of the home team, but the two prior to that were close games in which the road team pulled out a gutty win. This year, the Horned Frogs are looking to do what they should have done a few seasons ago, get to the College Football Playoff. But this WVU team under Dana Holgorsen has always been particularly upset minded.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 6 game is set for Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 3:30 p.m.
ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia +13
TCU -13
Over/Under 73
Odds Analysis
The Mountaineers have not been particularly impressive this season despite being 3-1. West Virginia has beaten up on the worst team in the Big 12 in Kansas, the worst defense in the country in East Carolina, and one of the worst FCS teams around in Delaware State. In the one game where West Virginia played a real opponent, It lost by seven points to Virginia Tech.
People are high on West Virginia’s chances in this one because of its offense. The Mountaineers have scored at least 56 points in each of the past three weeks and that has led to three straight over games. They have had a week to rest before this game and Holgorsen should have something in store for the Horned Frogs.
TCU was very sharp against Oklahoma State two weeks ago and rewarded bettors with an outright win that reverse covered. Like West Virginia, they have a high-powered offense, but the Horned Frogs can play a little defense too. They are just 2-2 ATS, but the two losses were by a grand total of three points.
Key Stat
West Virginia is going to find it difficult to run the ball against this defense. The Horned Frogs have one of the best run defenses in the nation, allowing just 94.5 yards per game. That places them 13th in the nation according to the NCAA.
TCU’s run defense was an integral part of its success against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys could only muster 3.3 yards per carry against the Horned Frogs defense, and that meant that Mason Rudolph had to throw into coverage more often since TCU didn’t respect the run.
The Mountaineers are averaging 5.8 yards per carry and their leading rusher Justin Crawford already has 451 yards and six touchdowns this season.
Player to Watch
Will Grier has put the mistakes he made at Florida behind him. Grier transferred to West Virginia looking for a fresh start and has found it. He has been a revelation in Holgorsen’s system, completing 65.3 percent of his passes and averaging 9.5 yards a throw. Although this has largely come against poor competition, there’s no denying his talent.
Anyone who watched the SEC in 2015, knows what he did at Florida. He has a big arm and isn’t afraid to make a tight throw, and that goes a long way in Holgorsen’s offense.
Grier is an adequate runner too. He averages 4.4 yards per carry and can extend a play by leaving the pocket when needed. He might have to do that often in this one.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams had a bye week prior to this one, giving each team time to get people healthy and come up with a solid gameplan.
Although I love TCU and Patterson, Holgorsen with time to prepare is scary. He will come up with a gameplan that will exploit weaknesses in TCU’s defense and has just the quarterback that can do it. West Virginia will give TCU all it can handle here.
College Football Odds: TCU 38, West Virginia 34
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