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Two of the top defenses in the country will square off in the Beehive State on Saturday afternoon. The Wisconsin Badgers suffocated both Utah State and Florida Atlantic in their first two games of the season and are now looking to do the same thing again in their first road tilt of the season. The BYU Cougars have something similar on their minds after a tough loss to arch rival Utah last week and will be playing their fourth straight home game.
Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 16, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -15.5
BYU +15.5
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
This might be the lowest total we see in a game all season long. Seeing a total in the 40s is uncommon enough in college football and a total in the low 40s is rare.
BYU has played nothing but under games all season long. The Cougars have sailed under the total by at least 14 points in each of their three games and so oddsmakers are wondering how low they need to set the bar at this point. The combined point total in their three games has been 26, 27, and 32 points because of a stingy defense and inept offense. That has also led BYU to a 1-2 record and 0-3 ATS mark.
The Badgers have put up points so far this season. They scored 59 on Utah State and 31 on Florida Atlantic in two easy victories. However, while they covered with plenty of room to spare against the Aggies, they were unable to reach the number against the Owls.
Matchup to Watch
Tanner Mangum has really struggled through the air this season. Mangum has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and is averaging just 155 yards through the air per game.
However, there is a reason for that. BYU’s receivers have been dreadful at getting off of the line. It started in the season opener against Portland State and opposing defenses have known what to do ever since then. The Cougars receivers have a real hard time with teams that have physical cornerbacks and that was put on display against LSU. The Tigers didn’t let BYU even cross midfield once in a dominating performance.
Wisconsin is going to follow that formula against BYU. The Badgers secondary has been so-so this season, but they will be able to shut down the Cougars passing game.
Key Stats
It’s no secret that Wisconsin wants to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible when on offense. The Badgers are averaging 295.5 rushing yards per game and Jonathan Taylor has been amazing as the team’s primary running back. Taylor is averaging 8.9 yards per carry through two games, a number higher than quarterback Alex Hornibrook’s average yards per passing attempt.
BYU is allowing 166 yards per game on the ground, but that’s more the result of an offense that is really struggling. Opponents are just grinding out the game against the Cougars and taking the air out of the ball as much as possible. LSU is the only team that really had success running the ball against them.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers are going to be able to run the ball effectively against the Cougars. They won’t put up LSU numbers, but will have enough success that they can control the clock and the game.
The crowd will be into this one, but it won’t be enough for BYU. This team just has too many woes on offense and can’t run the ball right now either. Wisconsin will win a boring, low-scoring game and make it difficult for BYU to get to a bowl this season because of a 1-3 start.
College Football Odds: Badgers 24, Cougars 7
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