The Wisconsin Badgers appear to be one of the best teams in the country. Wisconsin is one of a handful of undefeated teams left at this point of the season, thanks to a very underwhelming schedule. The Badgers toughest opponent all year may have been a decent Florida Atlantic team that is currently ripping through Conference USA. That easy slate will continue this week when they travel to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. It’s hard to consider that any other Big Ten team is worse than Illinois after a home loss to Rutgers and Lovie Smith may be out of a job soon.
This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 28, 2017,
at 12 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium Champaign in Champaign, Illinois This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -25.5
Illinois +25.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Illinois has been bad in a lot of areas this season. The Fighting Illini started the season 2-0 with wins over Ball State and Western Kentucky, but haven’t won a game since then. For the most part, this team hasn’t been close thanks to an underwhelming offense, but did cover the spread against Minnesota last week to move to 2-5 ATS on the season. There’s no doubt that Vegas considers this to be a bad offense though as no game has had a total higher than 55 this year.
The Badgers have been rock solid at 7-0 this season, but have alternated wins and losses against the number. Wisconsin’s offense has been better than expected, leading to the over cashing in five of its seven games, but the defense is the rock of the team. It has allowed more than 20 points just once all season.
Last Meeting
It’s hard to think that the Illini have a chance in this one after what happened the last time these two sides squared off. Illinois was totally flummoxed by Wisconsin’s defense and couldn’t move the ball. They went 0-9 on third-down conversion attempts and finished with a scant 200 total yards of offense on the afternoon in a 48-3 loss.
Alex Hornibrook was a freshman last season, so the Badgers wanted to run the ball as much as possible to keep him from making mistakes. They had a ton of success on the ground, running for 363 yards and that led to them dominating time of possession. Wisconsin had over 42 minutes of possession against Illinois and that helped the team score a relatively easy victory.
Key Stat
Illinois has not been impressive on offense all season long. The Fighting Illini are averaging just 18.6 points per game and just a shade over 300 yards per game. This team has been unable to move the ball against any team throughout the season, even struggling against weak defenses like Ball State and Western Kentucky.
The Illini will have a hard time moving the ball against a Wisconsin defense that has been one of the best in the country this year. The Badgers rank in the top ten in most major defensive categories and have been staunch against the run. Opponents are averaging just 88 yards per game against this team and only Florida Atlantic had some success moving the ball against them.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers can name the score in this one. Illinois doesn’t have much of a chance of stopping Wisconsin’s ground game, and Hornibrook can move the ball through the air in his second season as the team’s starting quarterback. However, the Badgers know that they are going to face some tough foes in the future and will have to go on the road again next week. That will cost them the cover, but they will secure an otherwise comfortable win.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 31, Illinois 7
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