The College Football Playoff Committee showed what they thought of the Wisconsin Badgers schedule on Tuesday. Wisconsin has yet to beat a team that is currently ranked and even though the Badgers are 8-0 and one of five undefeated teams left, it is behind six one-loss teams. The strength of schedule won’t be getting any tougher this week when they hit the road to take on the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is 0-5 in conference play and is sitting at just 3-5 this year.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Saturday, November 4, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -12
Indiana +12
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
Although Indiana has yet to win a Big Ten game, the Hoosiers have hung tough with each of their last three opponents and stayed within a score of both Michigan and Michigan State. However, last week, they were actually favored on the road against an injury-depleted Maryland team. The Terrapins have been devastated by injuries to their quarterbacks this season, but still found a way to knock off the Hoosiers.
Wisconsin isn’t going to have a statement win on its schedule and will need to run the table and win the Big Ten in order to make it to the playoff. Michigan’s collapse really hurt the Badgers as they were reliant on the Wolverines still being highly ranked when they played. The good news for Paul Chryst and the Badgers is that this team is two games up on every other team in the Big Ten West and they are a virtual lock to win the division.
Money has come pouring in on the Badgers in this one. Wisconsin opened as a nine-point favorite, but that spread has quickly ballooned to 12. The number is likely to come back down a bit before kickoff, so don’t lay a bad number if you like Wisconsin here.
Matchup to Watch
For the Hoosiers to stay within the number, they are going to have to find a way to stop Wisconsin’s ground game. The Badgers are all about running the ball as much as possible and controlling the clock. They are averaging 5.3 yards per carry and Jonathan Taylor already has 1,185 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Wisconsin has run the ball 200 more times than it has thrown it and it’s no secret the Hoosiers need to make Alex Hornibrook carry the team with his arm.
Although Indiana has a middle of the pack run defense in terms of total yards, this has quietly been a solid unit. The Hoosiers are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry despite playing some teams that love to pound the ball. That bodes well for Indiana heading into this matchup.
Key Stat
Indiana has a secret weapon in kicker Griffin Oakes. Oakes has been deadly accurate this year and has only missed one field goal so far. Unlike last year where he really struggled to split the uprights, he refocused himself in the offseason and is drilling over 90 percent of his opportunities. His one miss all season was from over 50 yards out and he has been money from everywhere else.
Free ATS Pick
For whatever reason, Indiana has shown an ability to stay in the game against almost every team it has faced. The Hoosiers actually led Ohio State at halftime in their season opener and have been right there with every team other than Penn State.
Wisconsin isn’t going to blow you out unless it dominates you on the ground or forces turnovers. As long as Indiana can keep hold of the football and not make dumb mistakes, it should be able to cover the spread as a double-digit dog.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 27, Indiana 20
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