The Wisconsin Badgers have been proving everyone wrong in recent weeks. Wisconsin has been hammered by critics and the College Football Playoff Committee alike for not playing a good enough schedule, but has dispatched everyone it has played with relative ease. No team has come within seven points or less of Wisconsin all season long and now it has two statement victories after it beat Iowa and Michigan in recent weeks. Wisconsin is looking to close out the regular season undefeated and hoist Paul Bunyan’s Axe when it takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 25, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -17
Minnesota +17
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
The line has only moved a little bit in this one. Wisconsin opened as a 16-point favorite, but the line has jumped to 17 points since it opened.
Over their last five games, the Badgers are 4-1 ATS. The wins over Iowa and Michigan were quite convincing, beating the Hawkeyes by 24 and the Wolverines by 14, and the defense has looked great too. Only one opponent, Northwestern, has scored more than 17 points against this team the entire year. Because the offense has been so good though, the over is 7-4.
P.J. Fleck is looking to get the Golden Gophers bowl eligible in his first season on the job. They started the season 3-0 in non-conference play, but have tapered off in Big Ten play. Minnesota did get a statement win two weeks ago though. The Golden Gophers trounced Nebraska 54-21 in a spread that was a PK and ran all over the Cornhuskers defense.
Matchup to Watch
The Golden Gophers have not been able to move the ball well through the air this season. Senio Conor Rhoda struggled through the first half of the season, so Fleck decided to pull the plug and went with sophomore Demry Croft instead.
Croft has put up even worse numbers through the air than Rhoda, but adds another element with his running ability. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season and his ability to run the zone read helped Minnesota torch Nebraska.
Unfortunately, despite his prototype frame, Croft is not a good passer. He is completing just 42.5 percent of his passes this season and has thrown four touchdowns against seven interceptions. Croft was simply awful against Northwestern in a 39-0 defeat last week, going just 2-11 through the air with three interceptions and finishing with negative yardage on the ground.
Player to Watch
Jonathan Taylor was just named a finalist for the Doak Walker Award, and it is very much deserved. Taylor has a good chance to finish with more than 2,000 yards this season as he is just 343 yards shy of the mark with three games left to play.
Wisconsin doesn’t have much of a passing game and relies on him to tote the rock, and he has performed splendidly. Taylor ran for over 130 yards against Michigan’s fantastic front seven and hasn’t been held under 73 yards all season. Two of the three games where he didn’t crack the 100-yard mark only didn’t see him go north of a century because he was pulled early in a rout.
The Golden Gophers defense is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and got gashed by Northwestern last week. Taylor could have a really big game.
Free ATS Pick
Rivalry Week typically has some crazy upsets, but I don’t see this being one. Wisconsin may have an eye towards Ohio State, but the Badgers are better than Minnesota on both sides of the ball. The weather looks like it will cooperate as too, so I like the Badgers to cover.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 30, Minnesota 10
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