This game should be billed as the SEC championship as Alabama and LSU are undoubtedly the best teams in the conference. Unfortunately for college football fans, the two reside in the same division and the West’s representative in Atlanta will likely be decided by the outcome. LSU went into last year’s game undefeated with dreams of a trip to the league’s title game. The Tigers were dealt a stern beating, lost their next two games and almost cost head coach Les Miles his job. Miles got a reprieve and gets Bama in Death Valley on November 5 as the Tigers aim to break a five-game losing skid in the series.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5
LSU Tigers -2.5
Odds Analysis
LSU hasn’t been the favorite in the series since 2007, so the early line clearly suggests the teams are closer than in previous years. Opening at -2.5 is good news for Tigers’ backers since the team is 6-0 SU in the last six games played as the favorite. However, LSU is just 2-2-2 ATS over those games.
Last Meeting
The SEC West and the Heisman Trophy were pretty much decided on this Saturday night. Alabama’s division title and CFP hopes took a turn for the worse after an upset loss to Ole Miss earlier in the season, and the Tide knew they had to run the table for another crack at the national championship.
The Tigers came to Tuscaloosa undefeated and in first place in the SEC West. They left a beaten and broken team. The Tide manhandled LSU in the trenches, dominated on defense and sprung Derrick Henry on his Heisman chase in their 30-16 win.
LSU’s Leonard Fournette was the Heisman frontrunner, but the Tide limited him to a season-low 31 yards on 19 rush attempts. Not able to run the ball, the Tigers resorted to the pass. That was equally unsuccessful. On the other side, Henry made a statement for an award he would eventually win, dashing for 210 yards and three scores on the ground. The Tide took control of the division with their fifth straight victory in the series.
The Series
There is plenty of history between the charter members of the SEC. The first game played between LSU and Alabama dates back to 1895 and the two have played annually since the 1964 season. The Tide have won five straight in the series and are 7-3 SU since Nick Saban took over in 2007.
Saban has coached both teams with a two-year stint with the NFL’s Miami Dolphins in between stops in Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa. From 2000 to 2004 Saban directed the Tigers and was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when facing the Tide. Overall, Alabama holds a 50-25 advantage and there have been five ties.
Importance
The games are never boring and the stakes always seem to be high. That’s what makes the Alabama-LSU matchup a must-see event. It’s rare that teams from the same conference play for a national title, but these two have been so good for so long that they met for the ultimate prize following the 2011 season.
Alabama and LSU have either won the SEC West outright or tied for the title nine times in the past 11 years, so a division crown is always on the line when they tangle.
Betting Angle
Miles has his deepest team in sometime in 2016 and the Tigers host Alabama in Death Valley. Those are two reasons why LSU opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the early line. The Tigers were ranked No. 1 in the country the last time they defeated Alabama, posting a 9-6 road win in 2011.
They didn’t get to enjoy that victory for very long. The teams met in the BCS National Championship in January 2012 and Alabama avenged its only regular season loss by pitching a 21-0 shutout to claim its 14th national championship. That started the current five-game win streak the Tide has where they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS.
Quick Pick
A loss to Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium last season ended the Tigers’ unbeaten start and nearly cost Miles his job. A sixth consecutive loss to the Tide certainly won’t endear him to the higher ups in the LSU athletic department. While the five straight losses are concerning, Miles has enjoyed success against Bama.
The Mad Hatter was on the winning end of his first three games in the series with two coming on the road. In fact, LSU won five times in Miles’ first seven seasons on the job.
There is plenty of preseason hype surrounding LSU and to live up to it, the Tigers need to get to the SEC Championship and the CFP. Anything less could be the last straw for Miles. You also have to think Fournette is looking for a better showing after being bottled up by the Tide last season. A more balanced attack should help LSU produce more against what is expected to be another stingy Tide defense.
NCAA Odds: LSU 24, Alabama 20
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