The regular season meeting between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers is set for Saturday, October 15 at Neyland Stadium. Given that the two teams are favored to win their respective divisions in the SEC, the matchup could be a preview of the conference championship game in Atlanta on Dec. 3. That would be wonderful news for the folks in Knoxville, who haven’t seen their team win the East Division and advance to the conference title game since 2007.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide +1
Tennessee Volunteers -1
Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers have taken notice of the Volunteers also, pegging Tennessee as an early 1-point favorite. In each of the last seven games the line played at double figures with Alabama the favorite. Tennessee covered the last two games, but Bama is 8-3-1 ATS over the past 12 games.
Last Meeting
With unbeaten LSU up next on the schedule, the Tide almost got caught napping when the Vols rolled into Bryant-Denny Stadium on Oct. 24, 2015. Tennessee was coming off a win over Georgia to even its record at 3-3, and faced the Tide as a 14.5-point underdog. The game was supposed to be a tune up for the Tide, instead it turned into a war.
The teams battled throughout the first three quarters with Alabama taking a 13-7 lead on Adam Griffith’s second field goal of the game with just over seven minutes left in the final period. But Tennessee came storming back and took its first lead of the game on a 12-yard Jalen Hurd touchdown run with 5:49 left.
The stunned crowd didn’t stay that way for long. Jake Coker moved the Tide down the field with several pinpoint passes and Derrick Henry raced for 14 of his 143 yards to give the lead back to Bama just over three minutes after they coughed it up. The defense sacked Josh Dobbs twice on the ensuing drive, the second forced a fumble which was recovered by A’Shawn Robinson to clinch the victory.
The Series
It hasn’t been much of a series recently with Alabama winning the past nine games and holding a 53-38 edge all-time. There have been seven ties. Tennessee’s last victory came on the third Saturday of October in 2006 with a 16-13 decision behind quarterback Erik Ainge’s 302 passing yards.
In 2016 the game returns to a long-standing tradition that dissolved in 1992 when the conference split into divisions. Prior to that season the matchup was played on the third Saturday in October and the rivalry game became known as that. Maybe this is Tennessee’s year.
Importance
As permanent division cross-over partners in the SEC scheduling matrix, the Vols and Tide play each other every year. Each team has one permanent partner from the other division, plays each team within its division, and rotates the last game between teams in the opposite division. So, if one team stinks, that really gives the other an advantage.
And that’s kinda been the case recently with the Volunteers, who hadn’t won more than seven games in a season for the seven years prior to 2015. While perennial conference powers LSU and Florida have to duel each year, the Tide has been racking up the wins over Tennessee. For the balance of power in the SEC, it’s important for every team to be strong.
Betting Angle
The matchup became known as the Third Saturday in October since the teams routinely played on that date prior to 1992. Tennessee’s last win over Alabama came when the teams played on the third Saturday of October in 2006. This season’s game will also be played on the third Saturday in October, hmmm.
Tennessee will also have a very good football team with the most starters in the conference returning from a team that didn’t lose after the Bama game last season. The young team got better following that defeat and college football experts are buying into the Vols being one of the best in the SEC in 2016. And it sure would be nice to get that monkey off their back.
Quick Pick
This could be the year the balance of power swings in the SEC. Tennessee has increased its win total by two in each of the last two seasons under coach Butch Jones and has a legitimate 10-win team in the making. Dobbs is an underrated quarterback and the Vols have a bunch of talent back, making them a scary team.
Tennessee came within a stop of upsetting Alabama on the road last season, and while the Vols won’t be taken lightly, they have a good chance of ending their losing streak to Alabama. This one should be close and the Vols have the home field edge. That’s enough for me.
NCAA Odds: Tennessee 19, Alabama 17
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