When Jim McElwain took over as coach of the Florida Gators prior to the 2015 season, his slogan was “Restore the Order.” The coach partially succeeded. After enduring two of the programs darkest seasons since the late 1970s, McElwain got the Gators back to the top of the SEC East and to their first conference championship game since 2009. However, he couldn’t do the job in his own state. The Gators lost their third straight game and fifth in the last six to Florida State. The rivals meet once again in the regular season finale on November 26 in Tallahassee.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Gators +11.5
Florida State Seminoles -11.5
Odds Analysis
Florida State hit the board as an 11.5-point favorite when the early lines came out. A double-digit spread hasn’t been all that unusual in this series. In fact it’s happened four times in the past nine games. In those matchups the underdog went 1-3 ATS.
Last Meeting
The Gators were ranked 12th and the Seminoles 13th when they hooked up in the final regular season game of 2015. But the teams were headed in opposite directions. Florida narrowly escaped with wins in its previous three games, beating Vanderbilt by two at home, winning at South Carolina and getting by FAU in overtime.
Florida State was riding a two-game winning streak after losing out on the ACC Atlantic title with a loss to Clemson three weeks prior. So it wasn’t a complete surprise that FSU won. It was a surprise that the 27-2 victory came so easily.
The Noles won in Gainesville for the third straight time and frustrated a weak Florida offense. FSU’s Dalvin Cook rushed for 183 yards and two scores and the outcome was never in doubt. Florida’s defense accounted for their only points to avoid being shutout. FSU quarterback Sean Maguire recovered a fumble in his own end zone for Florida’s only points of the game.
The Series
The two oldest public universities in the state of Florida have been competing on the gridiron since 1958. Florida holds a 34-24 lead with two game ending tied. Florida State has closed the gap by winning five of the last six meetings following a run of six consecutive victories by the Urban Meyer-led Gators.
Florida’s lead in the series goes back to its beginnings. The first six games were all played in Gainesville and the Gators went 5-0-1. After FSU’s first series win in 1964, Florida won 11 of the next 12 meetings. The series has been remarkably even recently. The teams have split the last 10 games and are even in the past 20.
Importance
The teams have never competed in the same conference, but they have kept up the tradition of the rivalry that started in 1958. It’s rare to have a Florida-Florida State game where both teams are not ranked in the national polls. Since 1990 the teams have played as ranked opponents 21 times. In nine of those games at least one team was ranked in the top two. In 1986 and again in 2011, neither team was ranked when the game was played. Those are the only two times in the last 30 years.
Betting Angle
The Gators don’t have Tim Tebow under center. Actually, we don’t know who they have. It’s a slippery slope when the coach is undecided about who plays the most import position on the team. When you have two or more quarterbacks, you have none, as the old saying goes. By the time this game is played, McElwain better have a starter.
Both teams have annually produced top defensive units and that’s a big reason why under bettors have made a killing in this series. The under has cashed in each of the last three series games and the teams have played below the scoreline 10 times in the past 12 matchups.
Quick Pick
Florida’s deficiencies on offense were exploited by the Noles in last year’s game. The Gators just didn’t have enough of a passing game to compete after Will Grier was nabbed for PEDs. McElwain knows what the problem is and tried to fix it. The coach is relying on unproven players to guide the offense.
Whoever gets the starting quarterback job will have a full season to digest the offense and should be a better player. Of course that was the thought process with Treon Harris and the Gators saw first-hand how that worked out.
FSU, meanwhile, has all the ingredients. The Noles are expected to have all 11 offensive starters back and Cook is a beast. He ran over and through the Gators last season and with a year of seasoning, the Noles should be able to extend their run of success.
NCAA Odds: Florida State 31, Florida 15
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