Prior to all the nastiness that surfaced in Waco this summer regarding the Bears football program, the matchup between Baylor and TCU on Nov. 5 had serious Big 12 implications. With the firing of coach Art Briles, the defection of numerous top-level talents and the black cloud still hanging over the Baylor program, we just don’t know what they have. While Baylor turned to former Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe to stabilize the program, TCU keeps on rolling with Gary Patterson, who recently signed a contract extension through the 2022 season.
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Odds Analysis
This game would have been close had everything stayed the same during the offseason. Instead Baylor is attempting to overhaul its program with a new coach and the early line was taken off the board. Even when Briles was there the Frogs had plenty of success against Baylor, going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Last Meeting
In what was a relatively low-scoring affair by recent series standards, the Horned Frogs upended Baylor 28-21 in overtime. The nasty weather likely had more to do with the final score than the teams competing. Either way, the two explosive offenses combined for 637 yards and played a scoreless second half.
The game-winner came on an 8-yard Trevone Boykin touchdown pass in the second overtime. TCU stopped Baylor on fourth down on the Bears’ second OT possession and the 19th ranked Frogs escaped with the victory over the No. 7 team in the nation.
Chris Johnson, Baylor’s third-string quarterback, got the start in place of injured backup Jarred Stidham, who moved up a spot on the depth chart following an injury to Seth Russell. It wasn’t an ideal situation for Briles and his group. Baylor’s ninth-ranked passing offense connected for just 62 yards. TCU’s fifth-ranked unit had just 148. The rain-soaked conditions definitely played a big part in what transpired.
The Series
In case you didn’t know, the Baylor-TCU series is one of the oldest and most played in college football. The teams first met in 1899 and have played 111 games. This truly is a rivalry for many reasons. At one time both schools were located in Waco and would play several times during a season. The teams have been members of two conferences together. Both were in the old Southwest Conference until it disbanded and they were rejoined with TCU entered the Big 12 in 2010.
And the all-time series is close. So close that neither team has an advantage entering 2016. Each team has 52 games with seven ties and they’ve split the last 10 meetings. In 2014 both teams were ranked for the first time when they played. They did it again last season.
Importance
There is no axe or little brown jug that goes to the winner, just bragging rights in this little section of Texas. The two schools are separated by approximately 90 miles on I-35 and many of the local players know each other and played with or against one another in high school.
The two have been at or near the top of the Big 12 standings for the past few years and are battling for position in the conference. Who can forget the 2014 shootout when Baylor ended TCU’s unbeaten run with a 61-58 win, denying the Frogs a possible berth in the first College Football Playoff. The two were co-champs with an 8-1 conference mark.
Betting Angle
Patterson is still pissed about that 2014 outcome that cost his team a berth in the CFP. Of course he didn’t know it at the time since the game was early in the conference schedule, but that would be the Frogs only loss of the year. And it sparked talk about expansion and a conference championship game. Since Baylor and TCU tied for the Big 12 and there was no outright champ, many felt it cost the league a playoff spot.
While the teams have split the past 10 games straight up, TCU has been putting moola in the pockets of its backers. The Horned Frogs are 8-2 ATS in that stretch.
Quick Pick
With so much uncertainty surrounding the Bears program right now, we just don’t know what they’re going to be like once they hit the turf. Grobe is a fine coach, but more importantly he’s a stabilizing fixture. The university would like to see a clean program so it can move on from all the negative press, and apparently Grobe is the guy.
He isn’t Art Briles and that leads me to believe the team will suffer on the field. Right now it’s vital the team succeeds off the field. TCU is just raring to go. Patterson has his new extension in hand and the team is loaded to score like a pinball machine. This could be a lopsided affair.
NCAA Odds: TCU 34, Baylor 22
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