The Mountain West Conference title used to pass through Boise. Air Force will use its triple option offense to try and run to the crown. The Falcons can claim the Mountain Division championship with a victory at Boise and a New Mexico loss this weekend, but they’ll have to win for the first time on the blue turf and improve on their 5-11 road record in their last 16 games.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State Broncos -14
Air Force Falcons +14
Over/Under NA
ODDS ANALYSIS
Air Force has been a good bet this season, covering its last four and going 7-3 ATS. Boise State lost outright last week as a 31-point favorite and is just 2-3 ATS at home this season, but the Broncos are 4-2 ATS overall when laying double-figures. The total was off the board but there are points out there.
KEY MISMATCH
Add the element of a passing attack to a team that runs the triple-option to near perfection and you have an offense that can be nearly unstoppable. Air Force stepped out of character in filling the stat sheet with passing yards in last week’s win over Utah State. Karson Roberts had 271 yards passing, the most by a Falcon’s quarterback since 1989. His favorite receiver, Jalen Robinette, had seven receptions for 210 yards, the third highest single-game receiving total in Air Force history and the most by a Falcons player since 1978. The new-found aerial attack helped the Falcons generate 580 yards of offense, nearly 130 more than their season average, in their 35-28 win. The triple-option attack produces 333.2 rushing yards per game, the third-highest in the FBS, but the new wrinkle doesn’t allow defenses to key on the run. Boise State held New Mexico’s option attack in check, yielding just 195 yards in the loss, but Lobos’ quarterbacks hit on nine of 13 passes for 218 yards.
KEY STAT
46.31 – Air Force’s third-down conversion percentage. The Falcons’ option attack thrives when getting an extra set of downs and they rank second in the MWC in third down efficiency. Boise State is second in the MWC allowing opponents to convert just 31.17 percent of the time and the Broncos did not allow a third down conversion in 10 New Mexico tries last week.
BETTING ANGLE
After Boise State was surprised at home by New Mexico last week, Air Force has a new set of possibilities. The Falcons hold a one-game lead in the Mountain Division with two games remaining and control their own destiny. There is a chance the Falcons can win the division even with a loss to the Broncos, but beating Boise State remains the clearest path. Boise State’s loss last week was concerning because it came against New Mexico, a team they had never lost to at home. The Broncos have shown a habit the past three seasons of turning in a stinker a few times per season. Last week was the second time this season Boise State dug a hole with a series of mistakes and couldn’t recover. With that dud out of the way, the Broncos face their second straight option-attack team in Air Force, and they have never lost to the Falcons on the smurf turf. Worse for the Falcons is they have lost 11 of their last 16 on the road.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Any Boise State home loss comes as a shock, but last Saturday was perhaps the most stunning of all. The Broncos suffered just their fourth home loss since 2001 and saw their 18-game home winning streak come to an end. The 30-point underdog New Mexico Lobos, a college football team without a winning record since 2007, took advantage of numerous Boise State mistakes to earn their first win on the blue turf, knocking the Broncos out of the driver’s seat for the division title. But just when you think the Broncos dynasty has come to an end, they put a solid performance together to get the faithful back on board. BSU will need a bounce back effort against the front-running Falcons, who used a balanced offensive attack to get by Utah State in a shootout last week. A new-found passing game along with the triple option produced over 500 yards of offense. AFA’s defense is still vulnerable and the Broncos put up 638 yards running 114 plays against the Lobos. Expect more of the same from Brett Rypien and the BSU offense, while limiting the mistakes. The Broncos won’t lose two in a row at home, but the Falcons can cover the spread.
Boise State 41, Air Force 35
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