The Iron Bowl is expected to be a one-sided beat down by Alabama, but the ‘Tide return to the scene of the ‘kick-six’ where they lost as a 10-point favorite in 2013 on a last-second 100 yard kick return of a missed field goal.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide -13
Auburn Tigers +13
Over/Under 48.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Alabama is up to a 14-point road favorite and the ‘Tide have won all three of their SEC road games by at least 18 points at Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Georgia.
Auburn has lost home games to Georgia, Ole Miss and Mississippi State while failing to score at least 20 points in any of those SEC games.
The total has remained firm since opening at 48.5.
KEY MISMATCH
Stats are sometimes trumped by energy and emotion in these big rivalry games, but Alabama appears to have the dominant defense to slow Auburn’s offensive attack. The Tigers offense and production is down this season to 377 yards per game while Alabama allows a nation-low 4.0 yards per play on defense.
The match-up to watch and mismatch on paper is the Alabama defense against Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson, who has not passed for more than 132 yards against any SEC defense this season.
The Tigers rushing attack goes for 200 yards per game, but that’s below recent standards. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has indicated he will be aggressive with his play-calling, so expect to see some trick plays as well. But with Johnson’s inability to pass proficiently or read defenses, the Tigers will have very few sustained drives with Alabama’s dominant run defense able to slow the Tigers on the ground.
KEY STAT
278 - Alabama has held seven of its last eight opponents to 16 points or less and are No. 3 in the country in total defense holding opponents to 278 yards per game and No. 1 at 4.0 yards per play.
Alabama has outgained six opponents by at least 175 yards and Auburn has been outgained in five of its last seven games.
BETTING ANGLE
Alabama is 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
Auburn is 3-9 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 SEC games.
The under is 5-1 in Alabama’s last six SEC games and 6-1-1 in Auburn’s last eight home games.
The over has cashed in each of the last four meetings.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We’d like to find reasons to support the home ‘Dog, but Auburn will struggle on offense with Johnson at quarterback. There is limited ability to move the ball through the air when needed on what should be many third and long situations.
Alabama running back Derrick Henry was used lightly last week in ‘Bama’s non-conference rout of Charleston Southern, 56-6. He’s rushed for at least 200 yards against Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M with two of those college football games occurring on the road. A very simple and powerful point of attack game plan should see Henry and the ‘Tide roll on the road with their ground attack leading the way.
Alabama 30, Auburn 10
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