Head coach Todd Graham hasn't been shy about touting top-tier potential for Arizona State football. The 2016 campaign will provide the stiffest test of the program's endurance in Graham's tenure. It could easily take one more year before the Sun Devils rebound from a chaotic 2015. ASU has fewer returning starters than any team in the Pac-12, except for Cal.
Arizona State Sun Devils Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Sun Devils Over 5 Wins -120
Sun Devils Under 5 Wins +100
2015 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS SEASON REVIEW
A 6-7 finish does not tell the full story of the 2015 Arizona State football season. Yes, a sub-.500 finish fell well short of expectations – expectations coach Graham set at national championship level. And, after back-to-back 10-win campaigns, the 6-7 tally marked a regression of two full games below Graham's previous worst in Tempe.
ASU’s poor performances weren’t necessarily correlated to whether the Sun Devils were playing good or bad teams. Sure, they got blown out by USC and, to a lesser degree, Utah. But they also lost by 14 to Washington State while handling Washington. They thumped UCLA on the road while fading late against Texas AM. They beat UCLA by more than they beat FCS Cal Poly. When ASU didn’t have it, ASU really didn’t have it.
The last month of the 2015 regular season and Arizona State's bowl game provides context to go with the record. The Sun Devils dominated in a win over in-state rival Arizona and rallied to beat a good Washington team, but blew leads against both Oregon and Cal before losing a Cactus Bowl shootout to West Virginia.
WHAT CHANGED
The Sun Devils averaged 34.6 points and 477.5 yards on offense last season but allowed 33.5 points and 463.8 yards per game on defense. The Oregon game wasn’t the only wild west shootout Graham’s team came up short in. Arizona State lost 48-46 to California in the regular-season finale and 43-42 to West Virginia in the Cactus Bowl.
Several other Pac-12 teams that struggled on defense hired new defensive coordinators, including Arizona, Oregon and USC. Keith Patterson, Arizona State’s co-defensive coordinator the past two seasons, will assume all of the responsibilities this fall. He was previously Graham’s defensive coordinator at Tulsa and Pitt.
2016 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE
Sep. 3: vs. Northern Arizona
Sep. 10: vs. Texas Tech
Sep. 16: at Texas-San Antonio
Sep. 24: vs. California
Oct. 1: at USC
Oct. 8: vs. UCLA
Oct. 15: at Colorado
Oct. 22: vs. Washington State
Oct. 29: at Oregon
Nov. 10: vs. Utah
Nov. 19: at Washington
Nov. 25: at Arizona
2016 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS SEASON PREVIEW
For the second time in four years the Sun Devils will enter a season without a quarterback on the roster that has started a collegiate game. The departure of last year’s starter Mike Bercovici opens a quarterback competition, which isn't that unique in and of itself. What is rather surprising is that whoever wins will be the first starting quarterback recruited by Graham's staff.
New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey may have to break in a new quarterback, but he inherits one of the best running back tandems in the Pac-12 with traditional feature back Demario Richard and power back Kalen Ballage. This year may be an ideal time to break in a new offensive staff. Lindsey's taking over play-calling for an offense that loses seven starters.
While there are gaping holes at quarterback and in the secondary, the schedule is tailored for a rebound. The Sun Devils could very easily sweep September, only leaving the state of Arizona to face UTSA in San Antonio. That said, it could easily take one more year before ASU rebounds.
There are the bones of a good team here, but against a schedule that features four projected top-20 opponents and eight projected top-50s, there might be a few too many missteps to jump back up into the eight-win range. But with six games with a win probability between 49 and 56 percent, it looks good on the over.
College Football Odds: Arizona State Sun Devils Over 5 Wins
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