The most winnable game on the back end of Arizona’s schedule was likely last week. And the Cats got pummeled by Washington. With games against Pac-12 South leaders USC and Utah coming up and the finale against Arizona State, the Wildcats could be left out of the bowl picture one season after playing in the conference title game. Is it a wonder why RichRod’s name keeps popping up for other coaching vacancies around the country?
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC -18.5
Arizona +18.5
Over/Under 64
ODDS ANALYSIS
The betting public is backing the Trojans once again, wagering the line to -20.5. Arizona is 0-3 ATS this season when playing as an underdog, getting outscored by a combined 160-50 in those games. The Trojans have won eight of the past 10 and the winning margin hasn’t been more than seven points in the last eight contests.
KEY MISMATCH
Arizona is in disarray, particularly on defense. The Wildcats are running out of stoppers, yielding an average of 40 points in six Pac-12 games. The Trojans, who’ve become much more physical under interim coach Clay Helton, will pummel the Cats with a barrage of running backs Tre Madden, Justin Davis and Ronald Jones. And if Arizona sells out to stop the run, it’ll have to contend with the accurate passing of quarterback Cody Kessler. USC turned to the power run game, especially last week against Cal. The Trojans had 33 rushes per game during the first six weeks, but recorded 45 rushes against Utah and 50 last week against the Golden Bears. The offensive line appreciates the run game as well. “With the type of players we have, as big as our offensive line is, we should be running the ball,” guard Zack Banner said. With top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster having surgery on his hand this week and questionable to play, expect more of the same from SC.
KEY STAT
34.2 – Arizona’s points per game allowed to rank 102nd in the FBS. The Wildcats give up an average of 40.5 points in conference play, and that includes holding Oregon State to seven back on Oct. 10. USC is second in scoring in the Pac-12 with 37.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
The teams are heading in opposite directions in advance of Saturday’s showdown. USC has played well under Helton, beating Utah and Cal the past two games. While the Trojans will need help in the form Utah losses, they’ll remain in the Pac-12 South Division chase as long as they keep winning. Arizona is circling the drain, capping a 2-4 start in conference play by getting crushed 49-3 at Washington last week. The Cats are in danger of missing the postseason a year after capturing the division, and rumors are swirling that coach Rich Rodriguez could be a candidate for ACC openings. Arizona opened as an 18.5-point underdog at BookMaker and looked the part last week, losing by 46 points as a 6-point dog. The Cats are 0-3 ATS this season when playing as an underdog getting outscored by UCLA, Stanford and Washington by a combined 160-50. USC has won eight of the last 10 games in the series and no team has won by more than seven points in the past eight games. This game figures to be closer than the spread making Arizona a smart play.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Wildcats can’t play as poorly as they did last week so look for a better showing, but it still won’t be good enough to knock off the Trojans. USC has found its groove under Helton and the team has responded to his player-friendly approach. He’s also coached to the team’s strength, which is taking advantage of versatile, athletic play-makers on both sides of the ball. The run game has improved, allowing Kessler to be a game manager while taking his shots over the top when the occasion presents itself. There have been improvements on defense, especially in the turnover department. But the Trojans are still vulnerable, particularly against the run. Stanford, Notre Dame and Cal averaged more than six yards per play. Rodriguez still knows offense, despite last week’s showing, and the Cats are capable of grinding out yards. The college football line seems too high against a team that had scored at least 38 points in three straight prior to last weekend.
USC 45, Arizona 28
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