Undefeated Oklahoma State will try to keep its Big 12 title and BCS playoff hopes intact against a Baylor team coming off its first loss of the season last week. The Cowboys are up to No. 4 in the AP Poll while Baylor fell to No. 10, but the Bears have the point spread value if they can overcome unbeaten letdown following last week’s loss to Oklahoma.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor Bears +1
Oklahoma State Cowboys -1
Over/Under 81
ODDS ANALYSIS
The game is now a pick ‘em and the total has been bet down to 77.5.
Note that Bears were a 29-point favorite in this match-up last year and won 49-28. Some feel a letdown is looming for Baylor, who suffered its first loss of the season last week versus Oklahoma and had its national title hopes dashed.
The Bears would have been a field goal favorite had this game been played last week before those results.
Check the weather with mid-40s temperatures and winds potentially up to 30 MPH.
KEY MISMATCH
Baylor’s offensive balance and pace versus Oklahoma State’s defense.
The Cowboys fell behind Iowa State 17-0 last week before rallying for a 35-31 road win with 14 unanswered points. But Iowa State was the more efficient offense and the Bears explosive, balanced attack will push the pace and strike quickly again.
Oklahoma State allows opponents to run 81 offensive plays per game including an average of 90 plays over the last three contests. The Cowboys defense may be wearing down, and this is not the offense to face with your defense on the field too much.
KEY STATS
Baylor leads the nation in total offense at 638 yards per game and scoring offense at 55 points per game including 50 PPG in Big 12 play. The Bears balanced offense features a ground game that runs for nearly 300 yards per game led by Shock Linwood and a powerful offensive line.
Oklahoma ran 87 plays against the Bears last week, and both Baylor and Oklahoma State average 78 offensive plays per game. Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph is averaging over 315 passing yards per game in Big 12 play with an 18:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
BETTING ANGLE
Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Cowboys have also covered eight straight versus Baylor at home.
10-0 teams are just 9-20 ATS in their next game when playing a greater than .700 opponent.
The over is 4-0 in the Cowboys last four home games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Bears freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham has played well since taking over for injured Seth Russell. Stidham suffered a back injury last week but will be fine and start, and he can also be a running threat. He’s tossed 11 overall touchdowns but only just threw his first two interceptions last week. Wide receiver Corey Coleman leads the nation with 20 touchdown receptions.
Both defenses allow 30 points per game in conference play and nearly identical 177 rushing yards against at 4.1 yards per rush. The pass defenses also have nearly identical stats allowing 260 passing yards per game. The Bears surprisingly have a league-low 10 sacks in six games. The Cowboys offense averages 80 yards per game less than Baylor in Big 12 play and is less efficient at 6.3 yards per play.
Oklahoma State is a quality NCAAF team, but won’t get through its next two games without a loss versus Baylor and Oklahoma. The Bears are better and we’ll back them to bounce back this week.
Baylor 41, Oklahoma State 37
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