The Big Game is just that for Stanford with the Pac-12 North theirs with a win. The Cardinal will have to overcome the disappointment of being eliminated from the College Football Playoff with last week’s loss to Oregon, and losing to Cal puts the Ducks in position to steal the crown. The rebuilding Bears seek their first win in the rivalry contest since 2009.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford Cardinal -12
Cal Golden Bears +12
Over/Under 64.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Stanford is a good bet following a loss going 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 after a defeat. Playing at home makes that even a stronger play. But the Cardinal is still laying double figures after the line was wagered down to -10 and that’s a big spread against an improved Cal team in a rivalry game.
KEY MISMATCH
Cal’s defense has been shaky at best all season, allowing a whopping 452.2 total yards per game and nearly 200 on the ground. Heck, they gave up almost 400 yards and 24 points to the worst offensive team in the conference last week. The Bears will have their hand full with Stanford’s dynamite back Christian McCaffrey. The Heisman hopeful set a Stanford record with his eighth 100-yard rushing game, going for 147 yards and a touchdown in last week’s loss. McCaffrey is second in the Pac-12 and ninth nationally in rushing with 135.4 yards per game. He also leads the FBS in all-purpose yards with 241.8 yards per game, over 30 more than second place Tyler Ervin of San Jose State. McCaffrey could become just the fifth Pac-12 player since 1978 to average 200 or more all-purpose yards. Cal’s front has been pushed around much of the season and the Cardinal is the most physical team in the conference. If the O-line imposes its will on the Golden Bears, look for McCaffrey to have a huge night.
KEY STAT
36.8 – Cal’s points per game average. The Bears go against the stingy Cardinal defense that surrenders just 22 points per game to rank second in the conference and 33rd nationally.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cardinal lost in agonizing fashion to the Ducks, there’s no way around that reality. And with it went all hope of a CFP bid. But they can still clinch the Pac-12 North against archrival Cal instead, but this will be a test of discipline for them, with the Oregon wounds still fresh. No one knows for sure whether the loss will spark a renewed surge or cause a prolonged stumble. We do know that the Bears are ready to pounce on any weakness the Cardinal may show when the Bay Area rivals meet for the 118th time. Cal’s Hardy Nickerson said he was fired up for the Big Game three minutes after the Bears’ win over Oregon State, which made Cal bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. That was big for the Bears, a win over Stanford would be huge.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Cal finally got that elusive sixth win on its fifth try to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. The Bears might be the best middle of the pack team in the Pac with wins over bottom dwellers Washington and Oregon State. There was a nice win over a surprising Washington State team, but the losses came against the heavyweights in games where the Bears were pushed around. And Stanford may be the most physical NCAAF team in the conference which isn’t a good sign. The Bears were dismantled 63-13 two years ago on the Farm but they’ve come a long way since then, just not far enough to knock off McCaffrey, Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal. Stanford will control the line of scrimmage allowing its offense to wear down the Bears with its lethal run game. Defensively, the Cardinal won’t give up the big plays that destroyed them against Oregon last week. The Bears are improved enough to cover, but not win.
Stanford 47, Cal 38
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