It's been a dismal year for the UCF Knights.
They're one of the two teams in America to not win a game yet this year, though a home game on national television against the East Carolina Pirates could change their fortune this Thursday night.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
East Carolina Pirates -14.5
UCF Knights +14.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
UCF was projected to be a halfway decent team this year in the AAC, but it just hasn't turned out that way. The team has covered two of its last four games, and it had a legitimate shot of beating Temple on the road, but the end result has been just a 2-8 ATS mark.
That's why the Knights are underdogs in this game at +14.5 even though they're at home playing against a team which, by most accounts, probably shouldn't be going to a bowl game.
KEY MISMATCH
The Knights just can't get anything going on the ground. William Stanback was kicked off the team early in the year, and the combination of C.J. Jones, Taj McGowan and Dontravious Wilson just haven't gotten enough going. UCF is averaging fewer than 80 rushing yards per game.
East Carolina's rush defense isn't great at 183.6 yards per game allowed, but one must remember that it had to play against Navy and several other teams who have believed in basically just pounding the rock as well. The team is allowing 4.2 yards per carry this year, which is proof that the rush defense isn't as bad as the raw numbers suggest.
KEY STAT
4 – The number of passes the Knights have picked off in their last four games. They didn't have a single interception in their first six games of the season, so theoretically, at least things have improved just a bit. Just one problem. Three of those four teams they just played against dropped at least 45 on them.
BETTING ANGLE
We're not all that sure what happened to the East Carolina offense this last month, but all of a sudden, this team has played four straight under games and has failed to cover each of the five. The Pirates lost to Temple, UConn and South Florida straight up even though they were favorites in all three games, and they look nothing like the team that had a legitimate chance to win at Florida in Week 2 and upset Virginia Tech at home in Week 4.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Give UCF this much: The team is still fighting hard for new coach Danny Barrett. Justin Holman is still trying to make things happen, often times sacrificing his body even though the team is winless. Sure, he's got 11 picks against just six touchdowns and is averaging 5.5 yards per pass attempt, but he has no help around him either.
That said, there's something wrong with East Carolina right now, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Blake Kemp hasn't panned out as a top flight starting quarterback, even by the standards of the AAC, and his last few games have been putrid. James Summers is seeing more and more time under center, and he just doesn't have the arm to put the ball in the air 40 times in a NCAAF game.
If ECU makes the mistake of letting UCF stick around, the Knights are going to capitalize. They've got a great home field advantage, and those fans want to see a win in the worst way. We think in spite of all of their troubles, the Knights will get the job done on Thursday night to attain that elusive 'W'.
UCF 24, East Carolina 17
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