The No. 8 Gators haven’t exactly dominated its lesser competition over the last couple games, but remains in the top-10 and in line for a SEC championship game appearance.
The Owls offer the Gators an easy chance to build some confidence, particularly on offense heading into the regular season finale against Florida State.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Atlantic Owls +31
Florida Gators -31
Over/Under 46.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement on the odds since BookMaker released them earlier this week. The total still sits at 46.5 while the spread has increased by a half of a point to -31.5 in favor of the hometown Gators.
The two times these teams faced prior to this year, the Gators easily won by more than 31-points and covered a 34-point spread each time, winning 41-3 in 2011 and 59-20 in 2007.
KEY MISMATCH
The Owls rank No. 105 in college football offensively, according to points per game. They’re averaging just 22.3 PPG which doesn’t match up well with the Gators’ elite defense.
Florida is fifth in total yards allowed at 280 and fourth in PPG at 14.5. They’ve also given up just 17 touchdowns all season long. On five separate occasions, the Gators have kept opponents at 10-points or less. They’ve also allowed no more than a single touchdown six different times.
The only teams that’ve been able to put up any sort of offense against Florida were the LSU Tigers and Tennessee Volunteers, scoring 35 and 27 respectively. As shown by its poor PPG average, Florida Atlantic doesn’t have near the firepower of either of those teams.
The Owls have tossed 11 touchdowns from the quarterback position, but have nine interceptions. First string quarterback Jaquez Johnson is completing 54.6% of passes while Jason Driskel is at 51.1%. Neither has dominated.
On the ground, Florida Atlantic lacks key playmakers, too. Greg Howell and Trey Rodriguez has solid numbers given their opportunities, but in the grand scheme of things, their numbers are just mediocre at best as the Owls rushing attack is averaging just 156.6 yards per game.
KEY STAT
9 – This is the turnover margin for the Gators through 10 games this season. Florida’s offense hasn’t been particularly dominant, but they’ve done well holding onto the ball. They’ve allowed just 12 turnovers on six fumbles and six interceptions. On the other side, the Gators have forced 21 turnovers, mostly on 13 interceptions.
BETTING ANGLE
With the Gators ranked in the top-10, the Owls present an easy letdown for Florida as they look forward to their showdown against rival Florida State next weekend.
Even if they overlook Florida Atlantic, an upset isn’t going to happen, but with a spread over four touchdowns, it’s not hard to image the Gators struggling to cover the spread, particularly when they get to a big lead early.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Outside of the cool angle with FAU quarterback Jason Driskel playing his brother’s old team, this game should be quite a lopsided matchup. The question: is 31.5-points too much to give. History says: no.
The talent gap between these teams also indicate that the Gators should cover, but do they have enough offense, even against the Owls?
To win by more than 31, you need to score well over 31. Florida has done that just once since Week 2, putting up 38-points in a huge upset over Ole Miss. A 9-point performance against Vanderbilt aside, the Gators have scored at least 21 against some solid teams in six of their last seven games including Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and more.
With FAU’s poor defense and propensity for turnovers, Treon Harris and Kelvin Taylor should have plenty of chances to move the ball up the field in this game to get them close, but laying 31.5-points might be just a bit too much.
Florida 35, Florida Atlanta 9
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