Florida continues to win but has been less than impressive doing it. Still, the Gators can make a strong case for a playoff spot with a win over Florida State and then in the SEC championship game. The Noles still have dreams of a New Year’s Six bowl game and look to remain kings of the Sunshine state with their fifth win in the last six meetings.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Gators 0
Florida State Seminoles 0
Over/Under 43.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The game opened as a pick em but was quickly wagered to Florida State -2. The Gators failed to cover their last two home games as big favorites. Two powerhouse defenses likely make this a low-scoring affair and the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings.
KEY MISMATCH
If Florida is to compete with Florida State it will do so with defense. The talented group, led by All-American cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, has propped up an offense that has struggled following quarterback Will Grier’s suspension. Following a 35-28 loss to LSU in the first post-Grier game Oct. 17, the Gators haven’t allowed more than 14 point to any opponent. They gave up a combined 10 points to Georgia and Vanderbilt, a huge factor in the SEC East victories. Florida ranks sixth nationally in total defense surrendering just 281.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play. The Gators are eighth nationally in rush defense and No. 10 in pass defense. Additionally, they are tied for third in scoring defense allowing 14.5 points per game. If Florida’s front seven can contain Dalvin Cook, that’s good news for Hargreaves and the secondary. The Gators have shown the ability to cause havoc against opposing quarterbacks.
KEY STAT
32.8 – Florida State’s points per game average. The Noles go against the fourth-best scoring defense in the country with Florida giving up just 14.5 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
In an obvious trap game the Gators looked sluggish and disinterested in a 20-14 overtime win over Florida Atlantic as 28.5-point favorites. Coach Jim McElwain said his team had the emotion of dead fish in the game. Breaking up the grueling SEC schedule with a contest against a lower-tier Conference USA squad this late in the NCAAF season was supposed to be a breather for the Gators, but they had to battle for the win in yet another example of two glaring weaknesses on the club – the offensive line and kicking game. Florida was able to overcome both but the game wasn’t expected to be nearly that close. Florida has only one win over Florida State in its last five tries, a 37-26 victory in 2012, and will need everything clicking against the Noles. A week later, the Gators face an even bigger challenge in the SEC championship game, likely against Alabama. McElwain’s team continues to win, but it also is regressing at a time when the best teams round into form.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
As good as Florida’s defense has been most of the season, the offense has had its struggles. Three weeks ago the Gators squeezed by Vanderbilt 9-7 as a 21-point favorite. Last week, they were 28.5-point favorites over an outmatched Florida Atlantic squad and needed overtime to get the win. The rivalry games figures to be a defensive struggle with Florida State also possessing a strong defense. FSU is more complete on offense – the Seminoles average 435.9 yards per games – but has its flaws. They do, however, have Dalvin Cook. And he will be the difference. LSU’s Leonard Fournette shredded the Gators for 180 yards in Florida’s only loss and Cook will get plenty of carries. FSU’s defensive front will also take advantage of a suspect Florida offensive line that has had problems creating running lanes and in pass protection. The Gators aren’t facing the Owls or Commodores and the outcome is much different with the Noles extending their win streak in the series to three.
Florida State 23, Florida 17
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