It hasn't always been easy for the Florida Gators, but in all likelihood, they've got their whole season in front of them and a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line over the course of the next seven days. The Florida State Seminoles are in their way, and the argument could be that they have the better of these two teams coming into this one.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida State Seminoles PK
Florida Gators PK
Over/Under 43.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Perception and reality are often two different things. Sure, Florida State was beaten soundly by Clemson, but if Roberto Aguayo's kick sails through the uprights instead of being blocked and returned for a touchdown against Georgia Tech, the Seminoles would still have a case to be made about playing in the playoff as well.
They'd also probably be favored in this game relatively comfortably.
Instead, UF opened at a pick 'em but has since been bet up to a 2-point home underdog, proof that these two teams belong on the same field together.
The total opened up at 43.5 in a game which features two awesome defenses.
KEY MISMATCH
Treon Harris had nothing going last year when the Gators went to Tallahassee. Yes, FSU only won the game 24-19 thanks to four Jameis Winston interceptions, but Harris and the Florida offense managed a total of just 282 yards, and the then frosh threw two costly interceptions.
The Seminoles still have one of the most ferocious defenses in America, and if teams like Vandy and Florida Atlantic have been able to shut down this offense, we have to think that they're going to do it as well.
FSU is holding teams to just 17.0 points per game, and it hasn't allowed more than 24 to any team in America this season, including Clemson.
KEY STAT
192.4 – The number of passing yards the Gators have averaged in their last five games since Will Grier was suspended for substance abuse. Harris simply isn't the same type of passer that Grier is, and his last game against Florida Atlantic was a joke.
He threw for 122 yards, but completed just eight passes and needed a fantastic catch on a 53-yard touchdown by Antonio Callaway to get almost half of those yards.
BETTING ANGLE
In a related story, Florida has played four straight under games, and none of those four have ended up coming anywhere near the total. The Gators haven't scored more than 38 in a game since Week 1 against an embarrassing New Mexico State squad, and it has had four touchdowns in these last four games either directly scored by the defense and special teams or essentially handed to the offense by the other units.
Each of the last two games in this series have failed to reach the total as well.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Whether it's Sean Maguire or Everett Golson who is under center in this game for the Noles won't matter. FSU has the only viable offensive threat in this game in Dalvin Cook, and it would be surprising if he didn't get the ball in some form or another at least 25 times.
The defense should do the rest. Jalen Ramsey is one of the best secondary players in the nation, and if he and his mates can keep Callaway from getting behind him, the front seven for the garnet and gold should be able to do the rest to hold down Kelvin Taylor.
This one won't be pretty for sure, but it'll finally end Florida's hopes of going to the playoff.
Florida State 23, Florida 13
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The duel between the Florida State Seminoles and the Florida Gators will take place at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, November 28, 2015. This 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff can be seen live on ESPN.
