A 3-8 season for the Yellow Jackets and career threatening injury to Nick Chubb for the Bulldogs has taken a bit of the luster off what was expected to be a premier matchup between an ACC contender and SEC powerhouse.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +5
Georgia Bulldogs -5
Over/Under 48.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
A half point drop in the total to 48 is the only movement Bookmaker has seen in the odds since they dropped at the beginning of the week. The Bulldogs remain 5-point favorites according to the oddsmakers.
Georgia Tech is a .500 team at home compared to a winless one on the road so that should allow this game to be a bit closer than it may otherwise have been. Still, Georgia is outscoring its opposition by nearly 10 points per game.
KEY MISMATCH
The Yellow Jackets have given up seven rushing touchdowns over their last three games and 23 all season. Nick Chubb is injured, but the Bulldogs have a system that’s great for running backs. Sony Michel has done a very good job since Chubb went down.
The new Georgia lead back had 132-yards and a game winning touchdown last week. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has 902 yards in part of a season. Unlike the Yellow Jackets who have a better rushing game, the Bulldogs have a passing game to complement their running game.
Quarterback Greyson Lambert has completed 63.5% of his passes and has a solid 11:2 touchdown to interception ratio. The ground game is the team’s main source of scoring, but Lambert is able to move the ball in the air and find targets in the end zone without giving the ball away. That keeps the defense honest, something the Yellow Jackets struggle to do.
Georgia Tech’s defense is middle-of-the-road, allowing 26.9 PPG and ranks out worse against the run than against the pass.
KEY STAT
.789 – The Bulldogs are only scoring on just under 80 percent of their red zone possessions with a good chunk of those scores coming on field goals. Georgia’s numbers in the red zone are a bit concerning as they’ve reached the end zone just 17 times in 38 attempts, adding on 13 field goals.
Surprisingly, Georgia Tech has a much better rate, recording 27 touchdowns—22 rushing—in 35 red zone possessions.
BETTING ANGLE
Georgia Tech beat Georgia for the first time since 2008 last season and the Bulldogs will be out for revenge.
Over their last six games, Georgia is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when facing the Yellow Jackets. When playing at Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven against the Yellow Jackets. Further, the road team in this head-to-head matchup is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Georgia Tech offers a stout rushing attack and pounds the ground. That method paid off over the last few college football seasons for the Yellow Jackets, but not so much this year.
Of course, Georgia Tech still ranks No. 7 in rushing yards per game, but the passing game is basically non-existent with quarterback Justin Thomas completing just 42.6 percent of his passes and throwing six interceptions with just 12 touchdowns.
Georgia’s defense can play almost exclusively for the run and between linebackers Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins, the Bulldogs have solid answers for Marcus Marshall, Clinton Lynch and company.
On the other side, Michel could put up a big game against the Yellow Jackets and are too well rounded overall to be upset by a one-dimensional Georgia Tech team.
Georgia 28, Georgia Tech 17
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