There wasn’t much more you could ask of Tom Herman from his first season as a head coach at Houston. The Cougars ripped through most of their schedule en route to the first AAC Championship Game in conference history and concluded the season by taking down Florida State in a New Year’s Six bowl game. By most Group of Five standards that would be considered a dream season, but the Cougars are looking at the 2015 season as a stepping stone.
Houston Cougars Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cougars Over 9.5 Wins -135
Cougars Under 9.5 Wins +115
2015 HOUSTON COUGARS SEASON REVIEW
Herman's Cougars were a revelation in 2015, with the ex-Ohio State offensive coordinator leading UH to a 13-1 record. Houston won AAC regular-season and conference titles and ended the season with a blowout win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl, finishing the year ranked No. 8 in the country.
The Cougars were really good, they were also really lucky. Close games are partially decided by randomness, but there’s no question some coaches manage play-calling and the clock better. So it’s not pure luck Houston went 3-1 in one possession games. It’s also not hard to see how things could have taken a turn for the worse.
Houston recovered two fumbles, was plus-three in turnover margin and needed a kick return score to beat Louisville by three. The Cougars recovered two fumbles and used a pick six to beat Cincinnati by three despite a massive yards-per-play deficit. They trailed Memphis by 20 with 13 minutes left and were outgained by almost 100 yards, but won on a missed field goal at the end.
WHAT CHANGED
The Cougars are the new leader of the Group of Five pack, setting the bar high for themselves in 2016 with the expectation of playing in the College Football Playoff. This may be a tall order, but given the return of quarterback Greg Ward Jr., some notable additions through recruiting and transfers and the schedule in front of them, we could be talking about Houston crashing the CFP party later in the year.
The Cougars lost their No. 1 receiver as well as top running back Kenneth Farrow. Six of their top 10 tacklers are gone as well. The offense is now almost solely dependent on Ward. Hey, he's a good guy to be dependent on. He had 4,100 total yards last year alone. But he's a dual-threat quarterback that is one hit away from the injury list, and if that happens Houston won't recover.
2016 HOUSTON COUGARS REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE
Sep. 3: vs. Oklahoma
Sep. 10: vs. Lamar
Sep. 15: at Cincinnati
Sep. 24: at Texas State
Sep. 29: vs. Connecticut
Oct. 8: at Navy
Oct. 15: vs. Tulsa
Oct. 22: at SMU
Oct. 29: vs. Central Florida
Nov. 12: vs. Tulane
Nov. 17: vs. Louisville
Nov. 25: at Memphis
2016 HOUSTON COUGARS SEASON PREVIEW
Houston is all the rage now that Ward, Jr. is back for another season and hotshot head coach resisted the temptation to take another offer after only one year on the job. Plus, the facilities are being upgraded as the program continues to attempt to look like a Power Five program, even if the Big 12 fails to extend an invitation. However, the tough part begins for the Cougars, living up to the expectations that they created by going 13-1 last year.
Ward, Jr. was a one-man show at times last season, and he was Houston's leading rusher. The Cougars can ride him to many wins in the AAC, but taking some of the work load off his shoulders in the running game would reduce the risk of injury. And that’s where former four-star recruit Duke Catalon comes in. His addition could potentially add a solid running option to the mix.
The price of 9.5 wins is steep to bet the under and it seems like a trap to entice people to bet the over. This is a team that is being hyped as a Playoff contender from the Group of Five. Herman and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando are both excellent, but this was an extremely lucky team in 2015 and it’s hard to wager on all that repeating.
College Football Odds: Houston Cougars Under 9.5 Wins
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