We're at a point now that it's pretty clear the Iowa Hawkeyes are 120 minutes of football away from being an incredibly improbable entrant into the College Football Playoff. However, Michigan State's playoff dreams took a massive hit on the road here against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, and the Children of the Corn would love nothing more than to pull off yet another massive upset in what will be their final game of the season if they don't win.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers +2.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Nebraska has a lot on the line here, knowing that it is playing for its bowl life. A win, and the Huskers will be off with a middling bowl game in a few weeks around Christmas. A loss, and the season is over with.
That parlayed with that win against Michigan State is why Iowa is only a relatively short favorite at -2.5.
KEY MISMATCH
The big problem Iowa is going to have in this game is the fact that it isn't able to really spread out the Nebraska defense. The Cornhuskers have had all sorts of problems against teams which line up four wide receivers, especially when there is a threat of a run and a pass.
Iowa is a lot more dead set on having two receivers, a tight end and a fullback along with a tailback along with other power sets. That really goes right into the strength of this defense, which is the linebacking corps.
It's not that Iowa isn't going to be able to run the ball on this Nebraska team. It's that the Hawkeyes can't take advantage of a massive weakness against spreads.
KEY STAT
3 – The number of interceptions C.J. Beathard has thrown this year. The Hawkeyes aren't built to come from behind, and the fact that they aren't throwing picks is why they're still amongst the unbeaten teams this deep into the season.
Beathard threw three TDs in the snow last week against Purdue without getting picked off, and his streak without an interception now sits at four straight games.
BETTING ANGLE
Say what you want about Nebraska being a huge disappointment this season, but the team has done the job as a dog. In fact, the Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS this season when lined at a pick 'em or worse, and they've won two of those four games.
It might be a bit of a statistical anomaly, but the underdog in Nebraska games is 9-2 ATS and 6-5 SU.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
In what has been a wacky and wild year in college football, it would only be fitting if Iowa's playoff dreams came to an end in Lincoln on Friday.
This just sets up really well for the Cornhuskers. They've won two games in a row after losing two games in a row, they're playing for their bowl lives. They've had an extra week to prepare for this game after Iowa had to play in the snow last Saturday against Purdue.
The Hawkeyes just aren't going to spread things out and try to create spacing on this Nebraska defense, and as a result, a couple big throws to Jordan Westerkamp later, and the visitors could be in catch up mode for really the first time this year.
This is where we're going to find out if Iowa is truly a great team or not, and we think we're going to find out that it isn't.
Nebraska 27, Iowa 17
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