The Iowa State Cyclones are stuck in this perpetual state of not being able to contend in the Big XII. Things aren't quite as bad in Ames as they are in Lawrence with Kansas, but the comparison between the two isn't all that far off. This should end up being another frustrating year for the Cyclones.
Iowa State Cyclones Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa State Over 3.5 Wins ( -160 )
Iowa State Under 3.5 Wins ( +130 )
Iowa State has turned into a run-first program, as it ranked No. 48 in the land on the ground at 182.0 yards per game. He's got a great returner in his backfield in sophomore Mike Warren, a man who rushed for 1,339 yards in 2015. Warren had more yards on the ground than any other frosh, and that should lead him to a fantastic season in 2016 should he stay healthy.
However, you really can't commit to the run if you can't throw the football at least a little bit. The Sam Richardson experiment ended halfway through last season, and that gave way to Joel Lanning, a rising sophomore who is a dual-threat with the ball in his hands. He's not a polished thrower though, and that could end up really hurting this team in the long run.
Eight starters are back from last year's defense for ISU, and as a result, we can't imagine this team giving up 32.7 points per game again as it did in 2015. The defensive line is going to be the unit which makes or breaks this team in 2016. Demond Tucker and Jhaustin Thomas make up what could be one of the better D-Lines in the conference, and if these men really get to that level, ISU could end up thinking about a bowl game.
2016 Iowa State Cyclones Football Schedule
September 3 – vs. Northern Iowa
September 10 – at Iowa
September 17 – at TCU
September 24 – vs. San Jose State
October 1 – vs. Baylor
October 8 – at Oklahoma State
October 15 – at Texas
October 29 – vs. Kansas State
November 3 – vs. Oklahoma
November 12 – at Kansas
November 19 – vs. Texas Tech
November 26 – vs. West Virginia
The first thing we do when we try to analyze a team with such a low season win total is to figure out where the wins are going to come from. Surely, Northern Iowa, San Jose State and Kansas should be wins, though the fact that the Jayhawks game is going to be played in Lawrence could be an issue.
But where else are there wins coming from? Home against Kansas State? Home against Texas Tech? At Iowa? They're all possible for sure, but none seem all that likely. And forget about games at TCU and Oklahoma State along with home games with Baylor and Oklahoma. Those are all surely not helping out the win total.
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Warren is a beast, and his name is one you're going to want to remember this year. Lanning can run the ball for sure, but he's going to have to complete better than 55.4 percent of his passes as he did in 2015 if this team is going to end up being effective.
Still, we see the potential here, and we think that Iowa State is going to pick off someone it has no business beating somewhere down the line. That Thursday nighter against Oklahoma is going to be the biggest moment of the year for the school, and that emotion in the building makes this a prime upset spot.
That said, the Cyclones still aren't going to end up in a bowl game. They'll top out around five wins at best, and more realistic is a 4-8 season marked with some improvement and hope for the future. ISU's best seasons are in front of it for sure.
College Football Odds: Iowa State Cyclones Over 3.5 Wins
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