After losing their last two games by a combined 103-points, the Jayhawks are still in search of their first win of the season. Texas has taken advantage of a weak Kansas team over the years. They shut them out last year and have beaten both them and the spread in five of the last seven meetings.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas Jayhawks +27.5
Texas Longhorns -27.5
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
Since the lines opened, bettors have seen the spread increase by two points to -29.5 in favor of the Longhorns. Bettors are counting on Kansas’s struggles to continue. They’ve lost three of their last four games by at least 48-points, well above the current 29.5-point spread.
Texas hasn’t really dominated the spread, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. That said, the Jayhawks have been worse. They’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10, just 1-6 ATS in their last seven in conference and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 on the road.
KEY MISMATCH
Almost every matchup in this game favors Texas. The Jayhawks are near the bottom of the league in nearly every facet of the game.
Of course, the Longhorns aren’t the most prolific defensive team, either, nor do they have much to offer in the passing game. That said, one big mismatch is their running attack against a very poor Kansas rush defense.
Iowa State shut the Longhorns out on Saturday by limiting them to 119 total rushing yards. Overall, the team is averaging 195.4 rushing yards per game and will look to get back on track against Kansas.
Quarterback Jerrod Heard leads the Longhorns in rushing with 507 yards while others like Jonathan Gray and D’Onta Foreman play significant roles as well. Heard and company will have a great matchup for a rebound. Kansas’s rush defense is one of the worst in the nation, ranking No. 119 and allowing 247 yards per game to go along with 23 total touchdowns.
KEY STAT
.500 – This is the percentage of red zone opportunities converted into touchdowns for the Jayhawks.
Kansas has reached the red zone 20 times, finding the end zone 10 times and kicking a field goal four times. Texas, interestingly, hasn’t been that much better. The Longhorns, despite a stout running attack, has been in the red zone the same number of times and delivered two additional touchdowns.
BETTING ANGLE
Texas has outscored the Jayhawks by 98 cumulative points over their last four games and won last year, 23-0.
Last season quarterback Tyrone Swoopes had a strong performance with a pair of touchdowns as the Longhorns only managed 111 yards rushing on just 3.1 yards per carry. Swoopes, however, has lost his job to Heard, though he’ll have a few chances as he’s gotten the snaps in short-yardage situations.
He’s completing just 41.7% of his passes, but has the team lead with five rushing touchdowns.
Given the history of these teams and Kansas’s abysmal stats, there is one concern for the Longhorns: a letdown. Texas seemed to underestimate Iowa State last week and got skunked as a result. They’re not a great team and cannot afford to overlook anyone, even Kansas.
The loss to Iowa State should prevent them from overlooking Kansas.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Kansas is a team with little positives. Texas has a poor rush defense and that’s been exploited, but the Jayhawks don’t have the personnel to take advantage. They are, by most measures, one of the worst programs in college football.
Texas can run the ball. Jerrod Heard’s luster has worn off a bit with Oklahoma State, TCU and Iowa State all showing the winning formula to shut down the quarterback, but I’m not convinced Kansas can keep Heard in front of them and avoid the breakaway run.
Even if the Jayhawks can slow down Heard, I look for the rest of the running depth to come through.
Texas 38, Kansas 7
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns will take place Saturday, November 7, 2015, at 8 p.m. ET at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. The game will be broadcast live on the Longhorn Network.
