The biggest game of the college football season takes center stage Saturday in primetime. LSU can take command of the SEC West and improve its standing the in the CFP for at least another week. While the SEC hasn’t been as dominant as in years past, it’s still the strongest conference in college football, and this matchup could turn out to be the championship of the division, the conference and maybe even the entire 2015 season.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama +7
LSU -7
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tide is 4-1 SU at home this season but have failed to cover each time. LSU covered its past three outings and is 4-3 ATS overall. The Tigers will be underdogs for the first time this season and are 1-4 ATS over their last five when given points, including a 38-17 loss at Alabama in 2013 when spotted 14 points. The total was quickly wagered down to 48.
KEY MISMATCH
No team really has a decided edge in this game and both are coming off bye weeks, which gave them a chance to heal injured players. And based on recent history there’s a good chance the Tide and Tigers could create another memorable game. This one features formidable front lines on both sides of the ball and two of the nation’s top tailbacks, LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Bama’s Derrick Henry going against two of the best run defenses. But the game isn’t Fournette vs. Henry. It’s LSU’s offensive line against Alabama’s defensive front seven. If LSU gets a push, the running back will have a big game. If it can’t, the Tigers could be in for a long night. LSU’s strength is its bookend tackles Jerald Hawkins and Vidal Alexander, and center Ethan Pocic. The guards are both freshman, so look for Bama to attack the interior, rotate heavily and try to contain the running game without having to bring up extra help from the secondary. Even though LSU has been doing a better job of being more balanced, its identity is still running the football. Win that battle and the Tigers likely win the game.
KEY STAT
+7 – LSU’s turnover margin. The Tigers are second in the SEC in differential and have just two giveaways on the year. Alabama has turned the ball over 14 times, but also has 17 takeaways.
BETTING ANGLE
Since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2007, the winner of this game has gone on to place at least tied for first in the SEC West every season except one. Three of the games went into overtime, and six were decided by seven or fewer points. There’s no reason to think this matchup won’t be close as well, especially since the winner will have the inside track to a playoff spot. With all the ingredients of a hard-hitting, high-stakes game, that doesn’t mean Saban and Les Miles will be conservative in their approach. Sometimes it’s the gambles that have made the difference. They’ve each had some successful calls, like Bama’s fake punt in 2012 and LSU’s fourth-down tight end reverse in 2010. They’ve also had failed ones. “I don’t think being conservative is really going to help you win a game like this,” Saban said.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Strap yourself in because this one promises to be a bone-crunching 60-minute thrill ride. Fournette has yet to play a defense as stiff as Alabama’s, and Bama hasn’t faced a back as explosive as Fournette. But there are many more intriguing subplots to this NCAAF game. Heck, even the coaches have been known to take it up a notch. This game will be decided in the trenches and Alabama’s defense is better, that’s it. That’ll likely be the difference. Tigers quarterback Brandon Harris has shown improvement in the passing game, but LSU is Fournette. Slow him down and your chances of winning increase drastically. It’s a lot to ask of Harris to get a win in Bryant-Denny Stadium with a raucous crowd pulling against you. It’s also a lot to ask of Fournette to carry the load. He’ll get his yards – he’s that good – but Bama limits the big plays. On offense the Tide will use their stud Henry to try and control the clock, keeping Fournette on the sidelines. If Bama takes care of the football they ride the crowd and homefield advantage to a victory.
Alabama 27, LSU 24
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