Ole Miss enters its final stretch in contention for the SEC West title but needs some help. They won’t get any from the Tigers, who lost consecutive games to Alabama and Arkansas to eliminate them from the division title race and College Football Playoff contention. Even with both team’s goals appearing out of reach, don’t think this game will be lacking motivation.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss Rebels -4.5
LSU Tigers +4.5
Over/Under 59.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The underdog has been successful at the betting window over the past nine meetings between the teams going 8-1 ATS in that span. The line was wagered down a half point and is manageable for the Rebels with much more at stake than LSU. And there’s the revenge factor. Ole Miss had its perfect season end with a loss to the Tigers last season.
KEY MISMATCH
After getting off to a 7-0 start and checking in at No. 2 in the initial CFP rankings, LSU’s season made a quick U-turn. The Tigers were beaten badly by Alabama and Arkansas and how they respond on the road against a fresh Rebels squad will be telling. LSU’s defense was shredded the last two weeks and now goes against the top scoring team in the SEC led by quarterback Chad Kelly, the conference’s leader in several passing categories, including yards with 322 a game, 23 touchdown passes and a 65.7 percent completion mark. His favorite target is Laquon Treadwell, even more dangerous now than before he suffered a season-ending leg injury last season. He leads the SEC in receptions and receiving yards. But the Tigers can’t place all their attention on Treadwell. Five other receivers have at least 25 catches with no more than eight grabs separating the entire group. The balanced attack is complemented by running back Jaylen Walton. He’s not a bruiser like Bama’s Derrick Henry, but he’s exceptionally quick and a missed tackle or assignment could result in a big play.
KEY STAT
40.7 – Mississippi’s points per game average to lead the SEC and rank 12th nationally. LSU surrenders 24.3 points per game and has given up its two-highest totals in the past two weeks.
BETTING ANGLE
LSU was a contender for the national title just two weeks ago. Mississippi was the biggest surprise in college football in September after a stunning win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Things have changed for the two programs, and not for the better. Ole Miss might be in a better position to bounce back. The Rebels had last week off after a crushing overtime loss to Arkansas on Nov. 7. They also have a glimmer of hope regarding the SEC title. Ole Miss must win its last two games and have Alabama lose to Auburn in the Iron Bowl for the Rebels to capture the Western Division title. It might be a good time to ride the Rebels, who are playing at home with a reasonable spread.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
LSU held its first seven opponents to fewer than 30 points and won them all. The past two weeks the D was gouged by the punishing efforts from Alabama and Arkansas and the result was a pair of big losses. The offense didn’t help in those games with Leonard Fournette held to 122 rushing yards total in the two games, which is below his season average. Putting the weight of the offense on quarterback Brandon Harris’ shoulders isn’t how this team won games. The tempo attack of the Rebels will have the Tigers on their heels and LSU won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. Kelly will pick apart the secondary and his ability to scramble will extend drives when LSU sends pressure. Ole Miss gets the home win and covers the spread in another grueling SEC battle.
Ole Miss 41, LSU 34
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